Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1123 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

No updates needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

Weak cold advection and drier air overnight will allow for cooler
temperatures overnight but minimums still expected a few degree
either side of freezing and above average for this time of year.

Short wave will track along the international border on Wednesday.
Most guidance keeps any shra north of the border so have kept
forecast dry there. Temperatures will again range well above
average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

Forecast challenge for this period continues to be the system
expected to cross the region late Thursday and departing by late
Friday into Saturday. Models now coming into better agreement and
the projected track is forecast to be farther south and east than
previously thought.

Tuesday night through Thursday morning...surface ridge axis
continues to retreat across the Great Lakes. Return flow on
Wednesday and continuing into Thursday will bring increased
southerly winds and warmer temperatures...with values expected to be
in the mid 50s north and near 60 south.

By Thursday night...low pressure system develops in the southern
plains. A vigorous wave will continue to dig into the base of the
upper trof. Height falls of 130 meters are indicated at 500hPa and
is expected to deepen the low as it tracks northeast into the upper
Midwest. 850hPa data indicates strong 40 to 50 knot low level jet
ahead of the system transporting Gulf moisture north.

Thursday night and Friday will see the most of the precipitation
across the region...starting with rain ahead of the low...eventually
turning to snow during the day as colder air filters in behind the
low. Strong winds are expected in the wake of the system as the
pressure gradient tightens. Models indicate unidirectional northerly
winds with speeds of 45 to 50 knots at 850hPa translating toward the
surface...and may result in some areas of blowing snow in the
southern valley.

By Saturday...surface high pressure builds in across the area along
with colder temperatures spreading across the area. The high will
push east by late Sunday...with return flow bringing a bit warmer
temperatures for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

Only expecting mid and high level clouds over the next 24 hours.
Light winds overnight will turn to the south and increase
Wednesday morning. The winds may get a little gusty by afternoon
but will quickly die down again by early evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
552 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
552 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG WINTER STORM
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SYSTEM, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH AND
THE STORM COULD TREND BACK TO THE WEST IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. AT
THIS POINT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BUT STRONG
WINDS INTO FRIDAY COULD BRING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE STORM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR