Wind Chill Advisory 14, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

No changes at this point. Will be monitoring
temperatures/wind/wchills as warning expires at noon.

UPDATE Issued at 659 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

Temps were holding steady or slow rising on the ND side of the Red
River. Will keep wind chill warning going for this morning. No other
changes at this update.&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

Upper level trough over the Northern Plains will shift east today.
Water vapor loop indicated another jet streak/short wave over
eastern MT and will move across the area this afternoon. Mostly mid
level clouds were associated with the MT short wave.

Cold air over the area will shift east today. Warmer air will
continue to move into the area through Mon then level off.

Another short wave will move through late Sun night/Mon morning and
produce light snow over northern MN. Flow aloft becomes quite zonal
with short wave embedded in the flow. Another short wave moves
through Mon night/Tue morning. Much warmer air will move into the
area after today.

Will keep wind chill warning going for this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

Wednesday through Friday...Near zonal flow sets up with several
significant shortwaves coming out into the Northern Plains. The first
will move through on Wednesday, with the deterministic models in
fairly good agreement on taking the surface low mostly west and
south of the CWA, with those border regions seeing the best chances
for precip. Will keep POPs going south and west for Wednesday. A bit
of a break, then another shortwave comes in Friday/Friday night.
More variation among the models in the strength and track of the
system, so will continue to keep mainly low POPs going. Temperatures
for the rest of the work week will still be fairly mild with highs
in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Saturday and Sunday...The models are showing even more variation as
we head into the holiday weekend, with some features 180 degrees out
of phase by Christmas Day. Will leave the blended solution going.
There is agreement on another cool down, just a question of how cold
temps will get. For now have readings back down to near or slightly
below seasonal averages for Christmas Eve and Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

Upper level trough over the Northern Plains will shift east today.
Water vapor loop indicated another jet streak/short wave over
eastern MT and will move across the area this afternoon. Mostly mid
level clouds were associated with the MT short wave.

Cold air over the area will shift east today. Warmer air will
continue to move into the area through Mon then level off.

Another short wave will move through late Sun night/Mon morning and
produce light snow over northern MN. Flow aloft becomes quite zonal
with short wave embedded in the flow. Another short wave moves
through Mon night/Tue morning. Much warmer air will move into the
area after today.

Will keep wind chill warning going for this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

Wednesday through Friday...Near zonal flow sets up with several
significant shortwaves coming out into the Northern Plains. The first
will move through on Wednesday, with the deterministic models in
fairly good agreement on taking the surface low mostly west and
south of the CWA, with those border regions seeing the best chances
for precip. Will keep POPs going south and west for Wednesday. A bit
of a break, then another shortwave comes in Friday/Friday night.
More variation among the models in the strength and track of the
system, so will continue to keep mainly low POPs going. Temperatures
for the rest of the work week will still be fairly mild with highs
in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Saturday and Sunday...The models are showing even more variation as
we head into the holiday weekend, with some features 180 degrees out
of phase by Christmas Day. Will leave the blended solution going.
There is agreement on another cool down, just a question of how cold
temps will get. For now have readings back down to near or slightly
below seasonal averages for Christmas Eve and Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

A clear sky was over the area. However some mid level clouds around
9 thousand ft were moving in from the west. Expect VFR conditions
for today and tonight. MVFR cigs can be expected for Mon over the
far northeast zones. VFR conditions elsewhere.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
608 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
608 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 50 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JH