Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
303 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

The main forecast challenge will be thunderstorm chances into
tonight. As of 230 pm a line of showers and thunderstorms extended
along the Canadian border and was moving ESE. Other storms had
fired around the KJMS area which were moving a little more SE.
The storms just to the north of the Canadian border have looked
severe at times, but as they have moved toward the border they
have weakened. Even so this line will bear watching late this
afternoon into the early evening as it moves further into the
northern FA. Will basically keep likely pcpn chances near this
boundary as it does move southward tonight. With loss of heating
by mid evening, the thunder component should begin to weaken, so
by midnight or after it should mainly be showers. Any pcpn should
be out of the southern FA by Thursday morning as sfc high pressure
builds in later in the day. Models differ a little on the strength
of the north winds Thu as the high builds in, some a little
stronger than others. Will keep with the idea of 10 to 15 or 10 to
20 mph thru the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Surface High pressure continues to push down across the fa from
central Manitoba through Thursday night and Friday... with the area
remaining under a dry northerly blayer flow. corresponding late week
temperatures should drop well below seasonal normals from Thursday
into Thursday night... and start to slowly climb back towards normal
during the coming holiday weekend.

Saturday into Monday... Though southerly return flow develops back
into the area from late Friday into Saturday... the 12z model suite
is a bit slower to develop deep convection into the Red River Basin
until late in the day on Saturday. The risk for widespread rain or
severe weather in the Northern Plains currently appears low for the
holiday weekend ...as models instead favor developing a frontal
boundary into the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley. This keeps low
level jet energy and any deep moisture surge blocked to the south.

There is still a risk for somewhat unsettled weather ...with
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the holiday weekend into
the early part of next week. Models transition from a fairly flat H5
flow across the Pac Northwest on the weekend... into a higher
amplitude west coast trof and central plains ridge into the next
week. With that... the increasing energy aloft could bring more
widespread rain and a risk for strong to severe storms by the
middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Conditions are VFR currently with no ceilings or VSBY
restrictions. As tstms develop or move into the area this
afternoon, do not expect any lower clouds with them. Only included
a VCTS mention at this point, but will update with a TEMPO group
if storms appear to be heading toward a TAF site. This tstm
activity should die down with loss of heating this evening,
leaving just some mid level cloud cover around. Winds look to stay
on the lighter side for the most part.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
538 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-301045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
538 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BEMIDJI MN TO NEW ROCKFORD ND. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOPPES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
205 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

MNZ005-006-292000-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-ROSEAU MN-
205 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROSEAU AND CENTRAL LAKE OF THE
WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 201 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 37 MILES EAST OF OAK ISLAND
TO NEAR NOYES...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS... INTO WARROAD BY 230 PM CDT... AND INTO ROSEAU... WILLIAMS
AND BAUDETTE AROUND 3 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4866 9449 4874 9628 4900 9638 4900 9516
      4907 9515 4905 9473 4888 9468 4878 9469
      4870 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 312DEG 52KT 4923 9403 4905 9715

GUST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
222 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

MNZ004-NDZ008-292015-
KITTSON MN-PEMBINA ND-
222 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KITTSON AND NORTHERN
PEMBINA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 219 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CARIBOU THROUGH
PEMBINA... TO AROUND 9 MILES NORTH OF WALHALLA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...   BACKOO AND BATHGATE AROUND
250 PM CDT. CAVALIER AND AKRA AROUND 255 PM CDT.  NORTHCOTE
AND LANCASTER AROUND 305 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 9682 4897 9645 4874 9645 4876 9792
      4900 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 325DEG 29KT 4895 9643 4906 9787

GUST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

MNZ005-006-008-009-292115-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-ROSEAU MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-EAST MARSHALL MN-
311 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROSEAU...SOUTHERN LAKE
OF THE WOODS...NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI AND NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLEMENTSON TO
BADGER TO NORTHWEST OF LEO...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GREENBUSH... WANNASKA AND HAYES LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 335 PM CDT.
  RURAL AREAS FROM AROUND SKIME TO AROUND CARP BY 350 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4839 9444 4858 9638 4888 9640 4868 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 330DEG 63KT 4863 9444 4883 9634

GUST