Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 9, 2016Griggs County, Steele County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 2016, 9:25 PM CDT for Griggs County, Steele County, North Dakota. It was in force for 50 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 9, 2016, 9:25 PM CDT (02:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2016, 10:15 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Griggs County, ND, Steele County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 9, 9:50 PM CDT	HAIL 1	4 Ese Finley, ND	STRONG WINDS BROKE DOWN NUMEROUS 1 TO 3 INCHES BRANCHES.
Jul 9, 9:50 PM CDT	HAIL 1	4 Sse Finley, ND	STRONG WINDS BROKE DOWN NUMEROUS 1 TO 3 INCHES BRANCHES.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 25 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 9, 8:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3085 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1729 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 165 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 226 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.0
Supercell composite: 20.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

732 
WUUS53 KFGF 100225
SVRFGF
NDC039-091-100315-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0084.160710T0225Z-160710T0315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN GRIGGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 925 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
  SHARON...OR 45 MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
  MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHARON AROUND 935 PM CDT. 
  FINLEY AROUND 945 PM CDT. 
  SHERBROOKE AROUND 1000 PM CDT. 
  BLABON AROUND 1005 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4767 9803 4767 9801 4743 9754 4724 9797
      4724 9813 4756 9822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 317DEG 23KT 4758 9805 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KNUTSVIG

2 follow-up statements

003 
WWUS53 KFGF 100241
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

NDC039-091-100315-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-160710T0315Z/
GRIGGS ND-STEELE ND-
941 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRIGGS AND SOUTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTIES...

AT 941 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FINLEY...OR 40
MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FINLEY AROUND 950 PM CDT. 
  BLABON AND SHERBROOKE AROUND 1005 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 9802 4762 9791 4743 9754 4724 9797
      4724 9813 4747 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 317DEG 23KT 4750 9794 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KNUTSVIG

177 
WWUS53 KFGF 100316
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1016 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

NDC039-091-100326-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-160710T0315Z/
GRIGGS ND-STEELE ND-
1016 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRIGGS AND
SOUTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4756 9802 4762 9791 4743 9754 4724 9797
      4724 9813 4747 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 317DEG 23KT 4750 9794 

$$

JR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 7:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 7:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
709 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Thunderstorms continue in area of 850 warm advection. Trend of the
storms are now to develop southeastward which is what some short
range models had earlier in the day. Also getting some increase in
coverage of general storms in northeastern ND but strongest
shifting to south edge of region west of Grand Forks. Overall
upped pops a bit more to likely in this area this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Still quite a bit of uncertainity in terms of convective trends
tonight into sunday. Broad 850 mb warm advection over central ND
in region of sfc-850 mb moisture advection. Activity focused in
southwestern Manitoba. Earlier activity that moved east of
Bismarck dissipating but a few showers trying to reform nr lisbon
nd. But in the past half hour storms have fired in a zone south of
rugby to east of harvey in central ND in this 850 mb warm adv
zone. Now these storms should move northeast but how much will the
grow in coverage as we head into the evening is greatly unknown.
earlier short range model runs indicated chc of storms in Manitoba
moving southeast in a bow. Latest HRRRx for the past few runs have
nixed that idea but also doesnt have current convection
developing. It ties convection to what will develop in Montana or
NW South Dakota and moves that east. For now will broadbrush pops
for this activity thru tonight. Any morning convection will lift
north and east as warm 700 mb temps 14-16C move into central/ern
nd midday and aftn Sunday. Thus dont expect anything during the
day over most of ern nd and the RRV once any morning activity is
gone.

Also for Sunday aftn high temps in the low 90s and dew pts in the
low 70s in far southwestern fcst area gives heat indices over 100
and this warrants a heat advisory sunday aftn. coord with abr/bis.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Convection may be ongoing across western North Dakota around 00z
Monday. The low level jet really cranks up Sunday night, with models
showing in excess of 50 knots at times. Fairly decent model
agreement in depicting best pcpn chances across the northern FA. For
this reason bumped up pcpn chances into at least the likely range for
areas north of highway 2. Moving ahead into Monday, there will be
some issues to work out yet. For starters, the SPC day 3 convective
outlook places areas along and east of the Red River in a slight
risk. Question number one will be what happens with the Sunday night
and early Monday morning convection, and how fast it moves east of
the FA. Question 2 will be the warm 700mb temps over the FA.
ECMWF shows 700mb temps warming to nearly +14C over the central FA by
18z Monday, while the GFS is even a tad warmer. So will need to
break the cap, and once or if this happens storms would quickly
become severe. Models are still showing a lot of spread in possible
solutions, so will have to see what later runs have in store.

There could be somewhat of a break in pcpn for most of the FA Monday
night, as the upper low tracks into southwest Manitoba. As the low
shifts toward Winnipeg on Tuesday, it looks to spread some
wraparound pcpn mainly into areas north of Interstate 94. Other
issue for Tue will be strong or gusty west winds. These gusty winds
should decrease somewhat Tue night, but still pretty breezy. Pcpn
chances should slide into NW MN overnight. For the Wed to Sat time
frame the FA returns to NW flow aloft. Overall temps will take a
dive to the cooler side of normal, with severe chances looking
fairly low. Forecast maintains a lot of rain chances, but overall it
will not be a washout.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Thunderstorms in the area from Devils Lake to Grand Forks will
likely drop southeast to impact Fargo and also east to TVF and BJI
this evening/tonight. Ceilings outside of these storms to be VFR.
Later tonight and Sunday morning continued risk of MVFR cigs
developing due to moist south-southeasterly flow.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ049-052.

MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 4:12 AM CDT, 17 hours 13 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-100915-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND A
MARGINAL RISK TO THE EAST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES UP TO 95 TO 100 FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AT
TIMES.

JAM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 9, 8:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
823 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             6 NE HATTON             47.70N 97.37W
07/09/2016  E1.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
            WIND.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 9, 8:25 PM CDT, 1 hour before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
825 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             4 NE BUXTON             47.64N 97.04W
07/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       TRAILL             ND   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WBARRETT

Local storm report, Jul 9, 8:41 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
841 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BUXTON              47.54N 97.10W
07/09/2016  E70.00 MPH       TRAILL             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY REPORTS SEVERE WINDS IMPACTING INTERSTATE 29 NEAR
            MP114.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 9, 8:46 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
846 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             HILLSBORO               47.40N 97.06W
07/09/2016  E1.75 INCH       TRAILL             ND   911 CALL CENTER

            DAMAGE TO VEHICLE WINDSHIELDS HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 9, 9:02 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
902 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             BUXTON                  47.60N 97.10W
07/09/2016  E1.25 INCH       TRAILL             ND   PUBLIC

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 9, 9:17 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
917 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             3 NNE GOLDEN LAKE       47.62N 97.61W
07/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       STEELE             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDS TO 55 MILES AND HOUR.

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 7:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Grand Forks, Steele, Traill, Walsh	60 min
Jul 9, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy	66 min
Jul 9, 8:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Eddy	20 min
Jul 9, 8:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Grand Forks, Traill	44 min
Jul 9, 8:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	41 min
Jul 9, 9:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Traill	52 min
Jul 9, 9:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Steele, Traill	45 min
Jul 9, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Traill	62 min
Jul 9, 11:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass	66 min
Jul 9, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Richland	62 min
Jul 10, 12:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	58 min
Jul 10, 12:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Ransom	64 min
Jul 10, 12:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ransom, Richland, Sargent	59 min
Jul 10, 1:10 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Richland	8 hr
Jul 10, 1:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.