Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Grand Forks, ND

097 
WWUS53 KFGF 250839
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNC007-250900-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-160625T0900Z/
BELTRAMI MN-
339 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY...

AT 338 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
UPPER RED LAKE...OR 45 MILES NORTH OF BEMIDJI...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHOTLEY AROUND 350 AM CDT. 
  OTTO AROUND 355 AM CDT. 
  WASKISH AROUND 400 AM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4795 9443 4767 9505 4815 9523 4837 9449
      4837 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0838Z 261DEG 26KT 4814 9480 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

There is a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of northeast ND
until 5 am. However the storms out west of Minot are moving quite
fast and should be into areas west of Devils Lake not long after
midnight. Still uncertain how much of the area will be affected,
but strong winds and hail are the main threats. Quite a bit of the
high resolution guidance is showing the activity west of Minot
lifting NE into southern Manitoba. However will have to watch and
see.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast challenges will be convective/severe potential
tonight and again Saturday afternoon. Main model differences
revolve around when cap will break allowing convective initiation
from anytime from mid/late afternoon to late evening depending on
model solution. Waiting game ahead.

For tonight global GFS/ECMWF models continue with convective
initiation farther south and earlier across the fa in warm
advection zone. These models even develop convection well within
high CIN area as far south as FAR. NSSL and HRRRX cams on the
other hand hold off on initiation with strong cap and develop
convection mid to late evening on fringe of cap across the far
north or even into southern Canada. Even farther south GFS showing
high CIN values with convective temperatures in the mid 90s.
Upper support lags with upper low still way back west in Montana.
So at this time am leaning toward later/farther north cam
solutions which make more sense. Will see in the next few hours.
With potential convection heavy rain concerns for far northern
valley into adjacent areas of NE ND and NW MN. These areas already
saturated and additional heavy rains will cause issues. At this
point there is enough uncertainty to hold off on any flood watch
headlines however this could change quickly if global models
verify and will need to monitor closely. Late tonight could see
another round of convection propagating in from the west however
low level jet not all that impressive so not sure how this
convection will hold together. Mixing and warm column will result
in warm and somewhat muggy night.

Will likely see some degree of convection Saturday morning with
general consensus over NW MN. Severe threat Saturday afternoon
will hinge on location of cold front. Still appears to be 2-4
hour window east of the valley for some severe potential. If so
expect convection to be east of the fa by 00z. Base on timing of
FROPA warmest temperatures will be along and east of the valley
with cooler readings to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Models in good agreement with low pressure system occluding along
the Manitoba Ontario border with PCPN wrap-around showers limited to
areas along the international border Saturday night. During the day
Sunday showers are expected to develop farther south...mainly along
and to the north of HWY 2...as low convective temps are reached
under cool air aloft. Thereafter PCPN chances through the week will
be limited as NW flow aloft keeps instability and or deep moisture
to the south and west. Slight chances for some convective activity
return in the afternoon Wednesday to Friday with confidence and
coverage limited. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the
mid to upper 70s with a few 80s possible toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Not much change to the previous set of TAFs. Looking like best
chances for any thunder after midnight will be at KDVL. As the
frontal boundary works across the area this afternoon there could
be more thunder chances at KBJI. Otherwise expect to see gusty
west winds behind the front for the afternoon into early evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-251100-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THESE
MORNING STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BUT BRIEF DOWNPOURS
AND LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AT
FIRST, BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS TONIGHT,
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE
RED RIVER IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT, ISOLATED AT FIRST BUT THEN FORMING A CLUSTER OR LINE AS
THEY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH LAKES COUNTRY, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
228 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

NDZ006-014-250830-
TOWNER ND-BENSON ND-
228 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON AND SOUTHERN
TOWNER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 227 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF ESMOND...OR 51 MILES WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ESMOND AROUND 235 AM CDT.
  FILLMORE AROUND 240 AM CDT.
  BAKER AROUND 245 AM CDT.
  HARLOW AROUND 250 AM CDT.
  YORK AND KNOX AROUND 255 AM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4824 9985 4837 9965 4837 9949 4848 9949
      4860 9931 4847 9902 4799 9981 4802 9981
      4802 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 225DEG 48KT 4803 9997

DTR