Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Convection this evening and if we get anything on Sunday will be
the main challenge for the period.

Strong upper level trough currently moving through the Red River
Valley, and with destabilization across the southern counties some
severe cells have developed. Isolated severe cells have been
pulsing up and down and 1 to 2 inch hail was reported at Fargo.
Think there should be at least a small severe threat for the next
few hours as 1500 J/kg of CAPE along with 30 to 35 kts of deep
layer shear continue over the south CWA continues through sunset.
Some weaker cells have also been developing over the northern Red
River Valley, and with weaker shear and instability expecting
mostly moderate to heavy rain. The convection should push eastward
through the rest of the evening and think we should be drying out
by 02Z or so.

Later tonight will be quiet as the upper trough moves off into
Ontario. The main surface trough will be further west and
southerly winds will continue over most of the CWA. With clearing
skies and recent rains there could be a fog threat, but think that
the southerly winds will keep too much from forming. Some stratus
moving into the southeastern counties is not out of the question
though so bumped up clouds a bit tomorrow morning. Lows tonight
should stay mainly in the 50s, and with southerly winds and less
clouds and precip temps should get into the 80s for Sunday. With
the warm temps the instability tomorrow should be even greater
than today, and deep layer bulk shear is still up the the 30 to 45
kt range. However, upper support on Sunday will not nearly be as
good with ridging building overhead and only a possible weak
embedded vort to set things off. Better chances into Sunday night
as low level jet sets up over the eastern CWA and a cold front
pushes through Thus just have some low POPs Sunday afternoon with
better chances Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Monday and Tuesday...A cold front should be mostly through the
area but a few lingering showers and storms could be in the
eastern counties at the start of the period. The boundary should
be to our south and east by Tuesday and conditions will remain
dry. The front will also help knock temps back from the 80s on
Monday to upper 70s to near 80 on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday...Upper ridge will start to build in
for mid week, although a low chance for precip remains with weak
embedded shortwaves and some warm air advection. However, the more
significant chances for precip will hold off until Friday and
Saturday as the upper ridge moves off the east and flow becomes
more southwesterly. Temps throughout the period will be above
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Included TSRA or VCTS at all but KDVL as current band of showers
and storms oriented southwest to northeast across the forecast
area continues to redevelop. Think that the threat of
thunderstorms will hang on through the rest of the afternoon
before ending early evening. Some spots near the storms have seen
reductions in ceilings to MVFR or even IFR conditions, but think
this should be short lived and all sites will be VFR by late
afternoon or early evening. After some clearing, there is the
possibility of some stratus moving back into the area as south
winds lift moisture northward. Most of the model solutions keep
this south and east of the TAF sites so will leave out for now but
keep an eye on things overnight. South winds should keep it mixed
enough to prevent fog formation overnight, and will increase to
the 10 to 15 kt range by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-280915-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM TOLNA TO GRAFTON TO WASKISH. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE THREAT TIMING IS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY GROW TO
SEVERE LEVELS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL MN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             8 N EVERDELL            46.38N 96.41W
08/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AT COUNTY ROAD 16 AND 270TH
            AVENUE. DRIFTS OF HAIL UP TO 1 FT ON EDGE OF ROAD WITH
            HAIL COVERING ROAD. CROP DAMAGE DUE TO HAIL.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             10 ESE CRYSTAL          48.54N 97.47W
08/27/2016  M1.00 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON HWY 81 AT PEMBINA/WALSH
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             10 ESE CRYSTAL          48.54N 97.47W
08/27/2016  E1.25 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WALNUT SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT US 81 AT WALSH/PEMBINA
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
353 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             2 W NASH                48.47N 97.56W
08/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       WALSH              ND   PUBLIC

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             ARVILLA                 47.92N 97.49W
08/27/2016  E1.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
401 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             GRAND FORKS AFB         47.96N 97.38W
08/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JAM