Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Convection this evening and if we get anything on Sunday will be
the main challenge for the period.

Strong upper level trough currently moving through the Red River
Valley, and with destabilization across the southern counties some
severe cells have developed. Isolated severe cells have been
pulsing up and down and 1 to 2 inch hail was reported at Fargo.
Think there should be at least a small severe threat for the next
few hours as 1500 J/kg of CAPE along with 30 to 35 kts of deep
layer shear continue over the south CWA continues through sunset.
Some weaker cells have also been developing over the northern Red
River Valley, and with weaker shear and instability expecting
mostly moderate to heavy rain. The convection should push eastward
through the rest of the evening and think we should be drying out
by 02Z or so.

Later tonight will be quiet as the upper trough moves off into
Ontario. The main surface trough will be further west and
southerly winds will continue over most of the CWA. With clearing
skies and recent rains there could be a fog threat, but think that
the southerly winds will keep too much from forming. Some stratus
moving into the southeastern counties is not out of the question
though so bumped up clouds a bit tomorrow morning. Lows tonight
should stay mainly in the 50s, and with southerly winds and less
clouds and precip temps should get into the 80s for Sunday. With
the warm temps the instability tomorrow should be even greater
than today, and deep layer bulk shear is still up the the 30 to 45
kt range. However, upper support on Sunday will not nearly be as
good with ridging building overhead and only a possible weak
embedded vort to set things off. Better chances into Sunday night
as low level jet sets up over the eastern CWA and a cold front
pushes through Thus just have some low POPs Sunday afternoon with
better chances Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Monday and Tuesday...A cold front should be mostly through the
area but a few lingering showers and storms could be in the
eastern counties at the start of the period. The boundary should
be to our south and east by Tuesday and conditions will remain
dry. The front will also help knock temps back from the 80s on
Monday to upper 70s to near 80 on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday...Upper ridge will start to build in
for mid week, although a low chance for precip remains with weak
embedded shortwaves and some warm air advection. However, the more
significant chances for precip will hold off until Friday and
Saturday as the upper ridge moves off the east and flow becomes
more southwesterly. Temps throughout the period will be above
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Included TSRA or VCTS at all but KDVL as current band of showers
and storms oriented southwest to northeast across the forecast
area continues to redevelop. Think that the threat of
thunderstorms will hang on through the rest of the afternoon
before ending early evening. Some spots near the storms have seen
reductions in ceilings to MVFR or even IFR conditions, but think
this should be short lived and all sites will be VFR by late
afternoon or early evening. After some clearing, there is the
possibility of some stratus moving back into the area as south
winds lift moisture northward. Most of the model solutions keep
this south and east of the TAF sites so will leave out for now but
keep an eye on things overnight. South winds should keep it mixed
enough to prevent fog formation overnight, and will increase to
the 10 to 15 kt range by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-280915-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM TOLNA TO GRAFTON TO WASKISH. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE THREAT TIMING IS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY GROW TO
SEVERE LEVELS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL MN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             8 N EVERDELL            46.38N 96.41W
08/27/2016  M1.00 INCH       WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             8 N EVERDELL            46.38N 96.41W
08/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

NDZ027-272030-
GRAND FORKS ND-
303 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAND FORKS COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 303 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HONEYFORD...OR 20 MILES WEST OF GRAND FORKS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HONEYFORD AROUND 310 PM CDT.
  EMERADO AROUND 315 PM CDT.
  MEKINOCK AND GRAND FORKS AFB AROUND 320 PM CDT.
  MANVEL AROUND 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4814 9715 4814 9713 4812 9712 4811 9712
      4810 9711 4807 9710 4806 9709 4791 9705
      4792 9766 4802 9768 4815 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 264DEG 23KT 4800 9751

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     HAIL             2 SW HONEYFORD          48.01N 97.50W
08/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTHWEST OF HONEYFORD.

&&

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

MNZ004-007-NDZ008-016-272045-
WEST MARSHALL MN-KITTSON MN-PEMBINA ND-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KITTSON...
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN PEMBINA AND NORTHEASTERN WALSH
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 309 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AUBURN...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF GRAFTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CASHEL AROUND 325 PM CDT.
  HERRICK AROUND 335 PM CDT.
  DRAYTON AND ROBBIN AROUND 345 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4843 9696 4849 9757 4858 9758 4873 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 264DEG 18KT 4856 9744

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             8 N EVERDELL            46.38N 96.41W
08/27/2016  M1.75 INCH       WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AT COUNTY ROAD 16 AND 270TH
            AVENUE. DRIFTS OF HAIL UP TO 1 FT ON EDGE OF ROAD WITH
            HAIL COVERING ROAD. CROP DAMAGE DUE TO HAIL.

&&

JAM