Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Grand Forks, ND

563 
WWUS53 KFGF 162012
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MNC111-167-162022-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-160816T2045Z/
OTTER TAIL MN-WILKIN MN-
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL OTTER TAIL AND
WILKIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GRAND FORKS.

LAT...LON 4659 9675 4663 9659 4663 9639 4635 9596
      4614 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 324DEG 16KT 4645 9638 

$$
SPEICHER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Cluster of tstms moving slowly southeast with new development
northwest of Fargo. Sfc obs still show a weak boundary and seen in
vsbl sat pix as well nr a Hallock-Grafton-Larimore-Cooperstown ND
line. Best chc of t-storms this aftn continue Fargo area then
northeast from there toward Baudette and Bemidji and then south
into central MN lakes country. But will need to include a low pop
back toward this weak sfc boundary just west and northwest of
Grand Forks. Also a weak shower has popped up on southeast side of
the Turtle mountains south of Rolla. So did include a low pop back
toward Cando for this. But overall with water vapor showing the
main short wave moving thru the RRV now do think much lower risk
of something west of the RRV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Upper air pattern is relatively progressive through the period.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over the area and will
continue to move east. Few showers and thunderstorms have formed
this morning.Forecast area goes into northwest flow aloft for a bit
until next upper ridge axis moves over the area Wed afternoon.
Upper level jet remains over Canada through the period.

Water vapor loop indicate an upper trough/jet streak over BC. BC
trough will move into central and southern Canada and amplify. A
cold front will move out of Canada on Thu and produce threat for
thunderstorms. Also low level jet will increase Thu night over
eastern SD and southern MN but moisture transport not that
impressive.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Friday through Monday...

The end of the work week and weekend will bring a period of mostly
dry and cooler weather. Thursday's storm system will still be slowly
exiting the area on Friday warranting continued low PoPs across
mainly the southern third of the region. Models depict best chances
will remain just south of the forecast area closest to the surface
low. Cool Canadian high pressure will then build down into the
Northern Plains for the weekend.

Temperatures will be well below with highs on Friday in the upper
60s/low 70s (lows dipping into the upper 40s to around 50) before
gradually warming back into the mid to upper 70s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Most sites to see low end VFR Cumulus broken deck this aftn in the
3000 to 5000 ft range. More scattered GFK and DVL. Light winds
today..more west at DVL and more south at Fargo and BJI and
variable GFK/TVF. Based on short range models and light winds
tonight did include patchy fog for areas east of the RRV
overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Riddle

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
620 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM BRAMPTON NORTH DAKOTA TO MIDDLE RIVER
MINNESOTA TO BAUDETTE MINNESOTA. THE STORM WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
FROM 3 PM CDT TO 9 PM CDT. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FOR THURSDAY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY ENGLEVALE NORTH DAKOTA TO PARKERS
PRAIRIE MINNESOTA. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OR SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY
FROM URBANA NORTH DAKOTA TO CHAMBERLAIN MINNESOTA. THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL,...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO. THE STORM
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY WITH
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MNZ002-003-NDZ030-039-161745-
NORMAN MN-CLAY MN-CASS ND-TRAILL ND-
1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORMAN...NORTHWESTERN
CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN TRAILL AND NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 1245
PM CDT...

AT 1143 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HALSTAD...OR 30 MILES NORTH OF FARGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HALSTAD AROUND 1150 AM CDT.
  HENDRUM AROUND 1210 PM CDT.
  PERLEY AROUND 1230 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4722 9719 4751 9694 4737 9641 4704 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 292DEG 8KT 4731 9689

SPEICHER