Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
320 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Main forecast challenge will be pcpn chances for this evening and
into Friday. The strongest feature is the upper low over north
central ND, moving slowly east. A line of tstms developed in an
arc out ahead of this feature, basically from Cooperstown to
Devils Lake. Had multiple reports of funnel clouds along this
line, but no confirmed tornado touchdowns. As this area continued
to lift NE, it ran out of instability and weakened. Some of the
stronger cells moved through portions of Nelson and Ramsey
counties, and dropped some heavier amounts of rain. For that
reason a Flood Advisory was issued for that area until 6 pm
tonight. At the moment, cells are all in a weakened state. Shear
and instability are not that strong across the area, so a few
severe storms are possible, but not likely or widespread enough to
warrant a watch. There has been too much cloud cover around
through the day. Latest high resolution model output shows the
majority of the pcpn staying north of highway 200 tonight, and
longest across portions of northwest MN. Some of this pcpn may
even linger into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

High pressure will bring diminishing wind to the region. Will have
to monitor for fog potential depending on how much rain occurs
today.

Mid level ridging builds into the FA Saturday dry conditions and
moderating temperatures...but still on the cool side of average.

With warm advection push and apparent weak wave riding the ridge
will maintain low end pops Saturday night.

For Sunday through Thursday...Southwest flow aloft expected to
develop early in this period as a strong upper low ejects into the
western Dakotas and then southern Manitoba. This upper low has
trended slower with each of the past few model runs. Details still
uncertain...but with the region in the warm sector multiple high
impact severe thunderstorm events appear possible. The strongest
signal for severe potential is on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Still have VFR ceilings and vsbys across the area, with the
exception of KDVL, which is seeing a tstm now. Thunderstorms will
be prevalent across the FA into the early evening, and perhaps
beyond that at KTVF and KBJI. As stronger storms move thru
ceilings may briefly dip into MVFR levels, but hard to time that
at this point. Models also indicate lowering ceilings tonight into
Friday morning. Not sure exactly how low to go, so just kept them
in MVFR levels for now. Winds overall look to remain on the low
side.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
652 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.
THE FAVORED TIME FRAME FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FROM NOON TO 6 PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FARTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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