Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1037 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Will continue to make periodic updates, particularly to the
temperature and dew point grids, as front moves further into the
state and colder air filters into NW GA. Hi-res short term models
are indicating a slowing of the front and the main precip area
into metro Atlanta, keeping rain chances into the late evening
hours across portions of north Georgia. This is generally 3-5 hours
slower than the previous thinking. Still thinking the potential
for any mixed precip will be north of the CWA where temperatures
and dew points have dropped considerably faster (KBGF near the
TN/AL/GA borders dropped from 72 to 39 in 40 minutes overnight).
Won't see quite that significant of a drop, but already seeing
temperatures fall into the upper 40s in far NW GA.

The leading precip line will continue to be monitored as it pushes
southward, with rotating showers of a concern. Winds along this
line are also gusting to 35-40mph, but with it isolated to the
more convective band, have allowed the Wind Advisory to expire and
will not issue for the remaining area at this time.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Strong cold front knocking on the door of the NW CWA this morning
with an isolated severe threat of damaging winds and possible brief
tornado given the high shear low CAPE environment. A severe
thunderstorm watch includes the extreme NW portion generally
Lafayette northward through 6 AM. Even the gradient winds just ahead
of the convective leading edge could down some trees so have issued
a Wind Advisory generally north of the I-20 corridor through 10 AM
this morning. Aside from general isolated storm chances within the
shower swath as the front pushes southeast today...some strong
storms could flare back up in east central Georgia this afternoon
per SREF progged SBCAPE trend...though still meager overall if
things were to destabilize a bit.

To add another fly in the ointment...there will be a robust drop in
temps with the fropa through today. Many locations in north GA will
have the daytime high near sunrise this morning then continue
falling throughout the day...a change from near the low 60s to 30s
and 40s by afternoon. The NW tier may even reach the freezing mark
by late morning which brings a slight chance for some black ice
given any lingering sfc moisture. A Special Weather Statement has
been issued accordingly through mid-morning. Did not include any
wintry precip transition on the backside...however...since the
thermal columns indicate a quick loss of saturation within the
low/mid levels.

Keeping general chance showers for portions of central GA going
through Monday as front and enhanced moisture swath stagnates due to
being elongated and removed from any stronger wave energy in the
more zonal flow aloft. Temps limited to mid to upper 40s for most of
area...though will not feel as brisk as today since the winds lay
down in a weakening gradient.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Old frontal boundary will finally push south of the CWFA Monday
night and stall across portions of central Florida through Tuesday.
The old front will begin trying to push northward Wednesday as a
warm front...as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold
front looks to move through on Thursday. High pressure returns for
Friday and pushes offshore the Mid Atlantic by Saturday. The next
system looks to impact the region during the late weekend into early
next week.

There is one forecast issue for the long term portion of the
forecast. The models have been consistent this season with rushing
the cold air in behind fronts...and producing a wintry mix behind
the boundary. This system is no different. Chances remain small...as
the low level moisture may scour out before the really cold air
moves in. For now, there are small chances (chance/slight chance)
for a rasn mix across areas mainly north of the Atlanta metro.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mainly MVFR cigs to start out then IFR at times through today as
swath of showers and possible MVFR vsbys move across the area
with a rather strong cold front. Enhanced SSW gradient winds 12-14
kts gusting 20-24 kts then should have abrupt switch to NW after
14z near KATL then trend later for other sites to south and east.
Showers should taper off by 00-02z /possibly sooner/ in the north
sites then linger on this evening for the south sites. Best chance
of TS for KMCN and KCSG this afternoon but too low to mention for
now. Cigs generally stay near MVFR levels into Monday morning.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on any cig improvement and timing of precip ending.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  38  46  34 /  70  60  30  10
Atlanta         71  35  48  36 /  80  40  20  10
Blairsville     66  28  50  29 /  80  20  10   5
Cartersville    68  29  47  33 /  80  20  10   5
Columbus        69  38  50  40 /  70  60  40  20
Gainesville     69  36  48  34 /  80  30  20  10
Macon           75  43  49  39 /  60  60  60  30
Rome            65  27  46  31 /  90  10  10   5
Peachtree City  71  34  49  36 /  70  50  20  10
Vidalia         78  50  53  41 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
610 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
610 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF GEORGIA TODAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. SEE THE
ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SOME ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MID-MORNING WITH MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1055 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ027-036>038-047-181630-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-Oconee GA-Clarke GA-Walton GA-
1055 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...Significant Weather Advisory for SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...NORTHEASTERN OCONEE...CLARKE AND EASTERN
WALTON COUNTIES Until 1130 AM EST...

At 1054 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Danielsville to Hull to Beechwood Hills to North
High Shoals...and moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Expect
           minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Watkinsville, Danielsville, Athens, Comer, Winterville, Crawford,
North High Shoals, Colbert, Arnoldsville, Carlton, Bishop, Hull,
Athens-Clarke County, Whitehall, Smithonia, Diamond Hill, Barnett
Shoals, Beechwood Hills, Watson Mill Bridge State Park and State
Botanical Garden Of Ga.

LAT...LON 3415 8306 3412 8305 3411 8303 3410 8304
      3408 8300 3405 8298 3377 8326 3378 8347
      3380 8348 3382 8350 3378 8354 3378 8358
      3391 8347 3415 8321 3417 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 260DEG 40KT 3411 8319 3400 8331 3391 8342 3381
8353

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1106 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ037-038-049-050-181630-
Morgan GA-Oglethorpe GA-Oconee GA-Greene GA-
1106 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...Significant Weather Advisory for NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE
COUNTIES Until 1130 AM EST...

At 1106 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Bostwick, or 10 miles
north of Madison...moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Expect
           minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
North High Shoals, Bostwick, Bishop, Farmington, Wrayswood and
Apalachee.

LAT...LON 3369 8320 3368 8360 3371 8359 3382 8350
      3385 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 260DEG 40KT 3373 8353

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1131 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ078-089-181700-
Muscogee GA-Harris GA-
1131 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...Significant Weather Advisory for NORTHWESTERN MUSCOGEE AND HARRIS
COUNTIES Until noon EST...

At 1130 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Fortson, or 7 miles
northeast of Smiths...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Expect
           minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Motorists should slow down and
           be prepared for possible loss of control due to
           hydroplaning. Also...the heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding or road ponding in slow drainage areas.
           When water covers the road...remember to Turn Around
           Don't Drown.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Columbus, Hamilton, Pine Mountain, Waverly Hall, Bibb City, Edgewood,
Goat Rock Lake, Kenwood, Mountain Hill, Green Island Hills, Mulberry
Grove, Fortson, Flat Rock, Rose Hill, Avondale, F.d. Roosevelt State
Park, Ellerslie, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, Highland Park and
Cataula.

LAT...LON 3287 8481 3287 8475 3283 8469 3274 8469
      3272 8468 3270 8470 3269 8469 3263 8469
      3244 8498 3247 8500 3250 8500 3252 8501
      3258 8507 3262 8509 3263 8508 3264 8511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 230DEG 47KT 3259 8498

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1132 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ037-038-049-050-181700-
Morgan GA-Oglethorpe GA-Oconee GA-Greene GA-
1132 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...Significant Weather Advisory for EASTERN MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES Until noon
EST...

At 1131 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Point Peter to near Lexington to near Maxeys to near
Madison...and moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

  IMPACT...People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Expect
           minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lexington, Crawford, Woodville, Maxeys, Stephens, Vesta, Penfield,
Point Peter, Greshamville, Wrayswood and Hutchings.

LAT...LON 3395 8279 3394 8285 3391 8288 3380 8298
      3378 8298 3376 8297 3363 8312 3361 8347
      3377 8331 3389 8317 3402 8306 3404 8298
      3403 8294 3401 8294 3401 8291 3398 8286
      3399 8284 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 257DEG 33KT 3400 8301 3391 8309 3379 8323 3364
8345

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1215 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ050-059>061-072-181745-
Jones GA-Jasper GA-Greene GA-Putnam GA-Hancock GA-
1215 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...Significant Weather Advisory for NORTHEASTERN JONES...SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER...SOUTHERN GREENE...PUTNAM AND NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES
Until 1245 PM EST...

At 1215 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Adgateville, or near
Monticello...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Expect
           minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Motorists should slow down and
           be prepared for possible loss of control due to
           hydroplaning. Also...the heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding or road ponding in slow drainage areas.
           When water covers the road...remember to Turn Around
           Don't Drown.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Eatonton, Monticello, Siloam, Reynolds Plantation, Phoenix, Liberty,
Warfield, Harmony, Stanfordville, Rockville, Resseaus Crossroads,
Rock Eagle 4-H Center, Adgateville, Blountsville, Veazey, Willard,
Round Oak, Oconee Springs Park, Central Georgia Experiment Stn and
Hillsboro.

LAT...LON 3317 8334 3318 8335 3317 8337 3318 8339
      3318 8343 3313 8342 3306 8359 3328 8375
      3347 8335 3348 8328 3350 8328 3359 8310
      3330 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 246DEG 31KT 3323 8363

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1216 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ039-051-062-181745-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Warren GA-
1216 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...Significant Weather Advisory for TALIAFERRO...SOUTHEASTERN WILKES
AND NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES Until 1245 PM EST...

At 1216 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was near Crawfordville...
moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Expect
           minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Motorists should slow down and
           be prepared for possible loss of control due to
           hydroplaning. Also...the heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding or road ponding in slow drainage areas.
           When water covers the road...remember to Turn Around
           Don't Drown.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Crawfordville, Norwood, Sharon, Holliday Park, Lundberg, Alexander
Stephens Park, Raytown, Barnett, Robinson, Aonia, Sandy Cross, Rocky
Creek Fire Dept., Cadley, Ficklin and Metasville.

LAT...LON 3366 8251 3365 8252 3364 8256 3365 8258
      3363 8258 3364 8259 3363 8261 3363 8262
      3362 8262 3361 8265 3350 8261 3343 8282
      3344 8287 3345 8299 3347 8301 3349 8298
      3358 8301 3378 8257 3365 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 244DEG 24KT 3350 8294