Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Models continue in good agreement through the short term. Cold front
currently just south of ATL-AHN and will continue to drift south
through the CWA. Moisture associated with the front will also sink
south this afternoon and evening bringing dry conditions to north
Georgia with isolated showers continuing across central Georgia in
the vicinity of the front. Moisture will begin moving north late
tonight and Monday bringing increasing chances of showers and
tstorms...mainly to central Georgia...and mainly during the
afternoon.

17

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Extended forecast looks to be on track with only slight
adjustments for Tuesday and Day 7. The lowered temps for the wedge
development still look appropriate, and neighbors seem to be in
better agreement with our thinking. Approaching passage continues
to keep pops high Saturday and Sunday. At this time, previous
forecast discussion still applies and is included below.

31

/Issued 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016/

Models with pretty good agreement on main influencing mid-upper level
synoptic features for fcst period and a bit closer with late period
sfc features. Still looking like overall decent chance pops for
majority of CWA for Tuesday as broad moisture field over southeast
CONUS gets aided squeeze play from a weak low approaching from
southeast Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to have some upper
ridging amplify eastward by midweek...with a translated sfc high
advecting into New England by late Thurs/Fri. This in turn would
result in a hybrid CAD regime for the area. There are signs of
fairly good low-mid level moisture overrunning so we could be in
for a cooler cloudy end of week into weekend. Increasing chance
for showers as well given this setup and will need to watch for
convective triggering along or near where wedge front shapes up and
any elevated instability for storm potential. Also higher chance pops
trending from NW by late Sat/Sun with approach of possible
shortwave/elongated front.

For temps...blend looks reasonable with values near climo norms
through midweek...though have gone a bit cooler for end of week
given aforementioned likely wedge influence and any in-situ
reinforcement /could be 3-5 deg below norm/.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Cold front has settled south of an ATL-AHN line and should
continue to drift slowly south through Monday. Deep moisture
should remain confined south of the front although there could be
enough to produce isolated showers north of the front this
afternoon. As moisture begins to increase late tonight and
Monday...showers/tsra will become isolated to scattered...through
the morning hours. CIGS should remain vfr through the forecast.
Winds will be light westerly this afternoon...becoming light
northeast this evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on shra.
Medium to High on timing of wind shift to northeast.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  85  70  85 /  20  50  30  30
Atlanta         70  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  30
Blairsville     61  82  65  83 /  10  30  30  30
Cartersville    66  88  70  87 /  10  30  30  30
Columbus        72  92  72  89 /  40  50  30  30
Gainesville     70  83  69  83 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           70  90  71  87 /  40  50  30  40
Rome            64  89  70  88 /  10  30  20  30
Peachtree City  69  87  70  86 /  30  40  30  30
Vidalia         73  90  72  87 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
449 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
524 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

GAZ066-078-112200-
HARRIS GA-TROUP GA-
524 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARRIS AND SOUTHERN
TROUP COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 524 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR JONES CROSSROADS...OR
NEAR VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LAGRANGE...HAMILTON...WEST POINT...PINE MOUNTAIN...RIVER
VIEW...BAUGHS CROSSROADS...JONES CROSSROADS...WHITESVILLE-PINE
LAKE...CANNONVILLE AND SMITHS CROSSROAD.

LAT...LON 3305 8496 3280 8483 3274 8512 3277 8514
      3278 8512 3279 8515 3283 8517 3285 8515
      3285 8518 3287 8519 3292 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 245DEG 9KT 3286 8509

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