Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...

Made a few adjustments to the Sky/POP grids and hourly temperatures
and dew points for today. No fundamental changes to the previous
overall trends or themes...just a few tweaks to fit current and
expected trends.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 705 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
An approaching cold front is expected to move into n GA this afternoon.
With ample moisture and increasing daytime instability...there will be
plenty for the development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms today. Short wave energy will also likely aid convection
over n GA as well. Numerous showers and storms(60-70% pops) will cover
much of n and portions of w central GA today today with scattered showers
and storms(30-50% pops) for the rest of the area.

The front will make slow progress across central GA tonight into Monday
and likely become stationary across the central-s Ga area later Monday.
Chances for showers and storms will diminish during the evening to early
morning hours tonight.

The models are somewhat inconsistent with how far to taking the drying
for Monday. As a compromise...I have left pops over portions of central
Ga for mainly Monday afternoon. This will depend how far s the front and
low level drying gets. The pops for Monday may Not be far enough n over
central GA as the upper level flow holds moisture farther n over the area.

Forecast high temperatures are running near normal today and Monday.
Forecast low temperatures are running near normal tonight with the coolest
temperatures over the counties farther n.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Models in general agreement with the long term solution. The H5
high will hold over the southeast through the long term although
it will weaken. At the surface a ridge of high pressure will nose
into the state bringing slightly drier air into the CWA. While the
drier air will not eliminate the chances of diurnal thunderstorm
activity...it will diminish it somewhat with slight chance to low
end chances of convection each afternoon and evening. Max temperatures
will remain at or just slightly higher than normal...however
overnight lows will be a little cooler than normal due to the
slightly drier air.

17

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the area outside of
convection through 06Z. Will see some local to scattered MVFR or
lower visibilities developing between 06Z and 14Z...mainly across
central Georgia. Although isolated convection is possible across all
of north and central Georgia at any time through 06Z...the best
coverage will be between 18Z and 02Z. Isolated to scattered
convection will be possible across central Georgia through 18Z
tomorrow. West winds 7-12kt through 00Z...becoming northwest 3-6kt
after. will likely see a period of northeast winds 4-8kt between
roughly 12Z and 18Z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence all elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  69  90  70 /  50  40  10   5
Atlanta         89  70  89  71 /  60  40  10   5
Blairsville     82  62  83  61 /  70  30   5   5
Cartersville    87  66  88  66 /  70  30  10   5
Columbus        90  73  92  72 /  60  40  50  20
Gainesville     87  67  87  69 /  70  40   5   5
Macon           92  72  93  73 /  50  40  30  10
Rome            86  66  87  65 /  70  20   5   5
Peachtree City  89  69  89  69 /  60  40  20   5
Vidalia         95  75  94  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1107 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-220900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1107 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
234 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

GAZ053-054-056-067-068-211900-
SPALDING GA-COWETA GA-PIKE GA-FAYETTE GA-MERIWETHER GA-
234 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SPALDING...
SOUTHEASTERN COWETA...NORTHWESTERN PIKE...SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND
NORTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LUTHERSVILLE...OR 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWNAN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GRIFFIN...SENOIA...GRANTVILLE...WOODBURY...LUTHERSVILLE...BROOKS...
MORELAND...SHARPSBURG...TURIN...HARALSON...LONE
OAK...GAY...ZETELLA... DIGBEY...WOOSTER...HOLLONVILLE...HIGHLAND
MILLS...ROCKY MOUNT...VAUGHN AND ALVATON.

LAT...LON 3335 8472 3329 8426 3298 8459 3316 8486
      3320 8486 3320 8487 3321 8487 3321 8486
      3322 8486 3322 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 274DEG 25KT 3324 8468