Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
The weather pattern over GA remains under the influence of a
southwesterly flow aloft due to an upper trough just west of the MS
river valley and an upper high centered over Bermuda. Scattered
showers and tstms were developing at this time light and variable
movement. Expect this convection to gradually increase in areal
coverage with max diurnal heating. Otherwise...the convection will
dissipate after sunset.

Expect the airmass over GA to stabilize tonight with moist min
temps in the 70s. This persistent pattern will continue into
Thursday with scattered afternoon and evening tstms. SBCAPE will
remain in the 1500-2000 J/kg with max temps a few degrees above
normal in the low to mid 90s.  Some storms could produce wet
microbursts and isolated areas of wind damage as well as periods
of heavy rain and frequent lightning. The airmass will settle
down again Thursday night.

16

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Have made minimal adjustments to the forecast package as trends
appear to be on track. Increased rain chances still in store for
this weekend with a transition into a period of decreased pops
after Monday. Previous forecast discussion follows.

31

&&

/Issued 432 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016/
Deep moisture is still expected to return through the end of the
week with increased rain chances through the weekend. The two main
atmospheric features are the moisture plume extending from eastern
TX to the New England states and the Bermuda ridge that stays
parked over the region through the end of the week. This ridge is
beginning to weaken but it will continue to keep the main axis of
moisture north and west of our area through Thu Night. This ridge
eventually allows the deeper moisture to move into our area Fri
Morning and will see increased chances of rain through the
weekend. Have continued with increased pops Fri through
Mon..especially across North GA. Instabilities are not that
significant through the extended so not expecting much in the way
of severe weather. PWs do increase significantly so any storm that
develop Fri through Mon will have the potential to produce periods
of heavy rain. Will need to watch out for the potential for
flooding as we get closer to the weekend.

Temps will remain a bit warm through the middle of the week then
subside a bit by the end of the work week and into the weekend as
rain chances increase.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the forecast period except
for areas of MVFR CIGs in scattered tstms. The storms should dissipate
after sunset with scattered tstms again on THU afternoon. A light SW-W
wind will prevail except for variable winds with gusts around 25 kts
in storms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on tstm timing...winds and visibility.
High on all other elements.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  93  73  92 /  30  40  30  40
Atlanta         74  91  74  90 /  30  40  30  50
Blairsville     67  85  67  84 /  40  50  30  50
Cartersville    72  92  71  89 /  30  50  30  50
Columbus        75  93  75  92 /  30  30  20  40
Gainesville     73  90  72  88 /  30  50  30  50
Macon           74  94  74  93 /  20  30  30  40
Rome            72  92  72  89 /  30  50  30  50
Peachtree City  72  92  72  90 /  30  40  30  50
Vidalia         74  95  74  93 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
521 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-180930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
521 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHIFTS TO NORTH GEORGIA AS A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THAT
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
404 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

GAZ095-172030-
HOUSTON GA-
404 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOUSTON COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CLINCHFIELD...OR NEAR
PERRY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PERRY...WARNER
ROBINS...GROVE PARK...CLINCHFIELD...KATHLEEN...MOSS OAK...
GROVANIA...MEADOWDALE...HAYNEVILLE...HOUSTON LAKE...SAND BED AND
ELKO.

LAT...LON 3245 8382 3245 8380 3249 8380 3250 8379
      3251 8379 3251 8375 3253 8375 3253 8374
      3252 8372 3254 8372 3258 8364 3242 8353
      3233 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 147DEG 6KT 3244 8367