Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
So far this afternoon...storms have been much more prevalent than
previous days...especially across the ATL metro and points
southward to CSG and MCN where storms have formed early and often.
CAPE values in this area have been on the order of 2500 J/KG to as
high as 3500 J/KG...more than sufficient for robust updrafts in
this environment. In addition...downdraft cape in this region are
quite high today with around 1000 joules of energy to work with
allowing for 30 to 40 kt wind gusts. Given the early start...could
see an early ending as well for at least the ATL metro portion but
storms could continue well into the evening across far North GA
as they feed on outflows from aforementioned activity.

For Wed...some increased deep layer moisture with precipitable
water around 1.90 along with increased low level CAPE and slightly
cooler mid level temps all point to a continued increase in TSRA
activity. Best chances now appear to be across the northern tier
but parameters are really suitable enough anywhere to realize good
coverage of storms tomorrow afternoon. There still looks to be
just enough dry air and with precip loading...could see additional
strong storms with isolated severe not out of the question.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overall extended forecast is on track and have made minimal
adjustments aside from Day 7. Although a moist air mass remains
over the CWA, the best rain chances will be across the far north,
particularly through the weekend and into next week. The previous
forecast discussion follows.

31

/Issued 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016/
Deep moisture returns through the end of the week with increased
rain chances through the weekend. The two main atmospheric
features are the moisture plume extending north to south across
the MS river valley and the Bermuda ridge that stays parked over
the region through the end of the week. This ridge is doing a
great job of keeping the main axis of moisture north and west of
our area through Wed Night...but the ridge weakens as we move
through the extended. This ridge eventually allows the deeper
moisture to move into our area Thu/Fri and will see increased
chances of rain through the weekend. Have continued with increased
pops Thu through Sun...especially across North GA. Instabilities
are not that significant through the extended so not expecting
much in the way of severe weather. PWs do increase significantly
so any storm that develops Thu through Mon will have the potential
to produce periods of heavy rain. Will need to watch out for the
potential for flooding as we get closer to the weekend.

Temps will remain a bit warm through the middle of the week then
subside a bit by the end of the work week and into the weekend as
rain chances increase.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
Activity has been much more prevalent in and around the terminals
this afternoon with an earlier start over previous days as well.
Have already inserted TEMPO for all groups from 18Z to 22Z but
will need to evaluate later for possible extension in time.
Otherwise..kept FEW010 in there for tonight but much will be
dependent on which terminals get precip this afternoon as those
with TSRA could get BKN cigs tonight. Additional storms on Wed
require Prob30 for ATL with the 18Z issuance.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium confidence on coverage of TSRA
High on all other elements

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  73  92 /  30  60  50  50
Atlanta         74  91  74  90 /  40  60  60  50
Blairsville     68  86  67  84 /  40  60  60  60
Cartersville    72  92  72  90 /  40  60  50  60
Columbus        75  93  75  93 /  30  50  40  40
Gainesville     73  90  73  89 /  40  60  50  60
Macon           73  94  73  93 /  40  40  40  40
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  30  60  40  60
Peachtree City  72  91  72  91 /  40  50  50  50
Vidalia         73  95  74  95 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Deese

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
442 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-170845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
442 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATES 75 AND
85 IN NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHIFTS TO NORTH GEORGIA AS A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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