Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
While some isolated showers/storms have developed mainly in eastern
and southwestern extent of CWA where the two zones of higher
dewpoint swaths have remained. Elsewhere...convective initiation
appears to be struggling given observed lack of vertical extent in
cu field and relatively low values on CI prob algorithm. Still
thinking isolated chance exists before evening but chance pops may
end up being on the higher side. Thermal profile was similar to
yesterday and any attainable CAPE is tally and skinny so just
general thunderstorm threat. Any lingering showers in the overnight
should be confined to the far NE with continued orographic
enhancement possible given the persistent southerly flow. Could
see some lower clouds develop again by early morning given the
model 975mb RH trend.

Saturday should be edging back to a slightly more favorable
diurnally driven convective day with some progged CAPE values a tad
higher than today since the Bermuda ridge builds in a bit more and
the stagnant broad low to our west slides a bit more NW toward the
ARKLATEX. This should drag the deeper moisture field and more
tropical regime with it and allow for more daytime heating in the
CWA. Resultant head indices for east central GA may even approach
105 degrees for a few locations but too isolated to warrant heat
advisory and afternoon cu field or precip potential may keep
critical threshold at bay anyway. Keeping general chance pops for
afternoon storms then have similar trend to overnight slight chance
in far NE for lingering shower activity.

Baker

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The extended forecast continues to show a drying trend through the
middle of next week. The main atmospheric feature is the Bermuda
ridge that stays parked over the region through day 7. This ridge
really strengthens its hold over the area through the weekend and
into the beginning of next week which will keep the deepest
moisture to the west and north of our CWA. The ridge does begin to
weaken by days 5 and 6 allowing the better moisture axis to move
closer to the area by day 7. Will have to keep an eye on how
things progress over the next few days and adjust pops as needed.
Have continued the previous trend with slight chance to low chance
diurnally driven pops in the forecast through day 5...with a slow
increase days 6 and 7. With a drier atmosphere over the next few
days...PWs drop from around 2.0 inches to 1.4 to 1.6 inches by the
beginning of next week. They begin to come back up to around 2
inches by the middle of next week. As a result...any storms we see
through Mon/Tue should not have as significant a heavy rain threat
as we have seen over the past few weeks.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Majority of sites now dealing with cu field lifted into VFR
category of mainly 4-5 kft. Best chance of TSRA looking to be KAHN
and KCSG though isolated showers could be at any site this
afternoon. Looks like decent chance for low end MVFR deck
developing early Saturday (after about 08-10z). Winds SSE 7-10
kts initially and expect SSE 3-5 kts overnight before more SSW
shift after 14-16z tomorrow. A slightly greater chance for TSRA
tomorrow so included late period prob30.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on extent of early morning cigs.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  20
Atlanta         74  90  74  92 /  20  30  20  30
Blairsville     70  86  67  87 /  30  40  30  40
Cartersville    73  90  72  92 /  20  30  30  30
Columbus        74  92  74  93 /  30  40  30  30
Gainesville     73  89  73  91 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           73  93  73  94 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            73  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  72  90  70  92 /  20  30  20  30
Vidalia         74  95  74  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Baker

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
327 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

GAZ024-025-027-036-038-122015-
MADISON GA-OGLETHORPE GA-BANKS GA-CLARKE GA-JACKSON GA-
327 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
OGLETHORPE...SOUTHEASTERN BANKS...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 326 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COLBERT...OR 8 MILES
SOUTH OF DANIELSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
COMMERCE...DANIELSVILLE...ATHENS...NICHOLSON...COMER...WINTERVILLE...
COLBERT...ILA...HULL...ATHENS-CLARKE
COUNTY...WHITEHALL...SMITHONIA... NEESE...DIAMOND HILL...SANDY CREEK
RECREATION AREA...JAMES HOLLAND YOUTH SPORTS CMPX...BARRETTS
MILL...DUNLAP AND POCATALIGO.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3424 8334 3426 8330 3425 8329
      3424 8324 3425 8324 3425 8320 3424 8317
      3426 8314 3396 8307 3390 8338 3424 8351
      3428 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 159DEG 19KT 3401 8324

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

GAZ023>025-122030-
BANKS GA-JACKSON GA-HALL GA-
351 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BANKS...NORTHERN JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BOWMAN TO COMMERCE TO NEAR ARCADE...AND MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
GAINESVILLE...JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...HOMER...LULA...MAYSVILLE...ARCAD
E... PENDERGRASS...GILLSVILLE...TALMO...PINEFIELD
CROSSROADS...HOLLINGSWORTH... APPLE VALLEY...PEACH STATE SPEEDWAY
AND BANKS CROSSING.

LAT...LON 3443 8361 3449 8354 3448 8347 3446 8340
      3442 8338 3432 8339 3426 8334 3425 8334
      3417 8346 3405 8359 3439 8389 3450 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 148DEG 9KT 3419 8293 3419 8347 3406 8360

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

GAZ009-016-023-024-122130-
TOWNS GA-WHITE GA-BANKS GA-HALL GA-
438 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TOWNS...WHITE...
NORTHWESTERN BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LULA...OR 10 MILES
WEST OF HOMER...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GAINESVILLE...CLEVELAND...LULA...CLERMONT...HELEN...GILLSVILLE...UNIC
OI STATE PARK...SAUTEE...MOSSY CREEK...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION
ARE... LEAF...ANNA RUBY FALLS...CAMP COLEMAN LAKE...QUALATCHEE
LAKE...WHITLEY GAP SHELTER AND ROBERTSTOWN.

LAT...LON 3481 8368 3479 8368 3476 8363 3469 8364
      3465 8366 3455 8362 3451 8367 3443 8361
      3449 8354 3431 8354 3428 8376 3452 8385
      3453 8383 3457 8387 3468 8387 3472 8386
      3473 8383 3478 8382 3480 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 170DEG 14KT 3437 8367