Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
129 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1021 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016/

UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms developing across the
mountains/foothills. This is associated with a weak upper level
disturbance in conjunction with a frontal boundary. Expect this
activity to continue to march south and east into more unstable
air where some storms could become strong.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 725 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Upper flow becoming somewhat northwesterly in nature today
through Wednesday. Weak wave moving through the northwest flow
into Tennessee this morning evident on satellite and reflected in
the scattered convection over that region. Medium range models all
picking up on this feature and sweeping it east southeast into
north Georgia today...however all are also weakening it through
the day. I have held back from going likely POPs across the area
for now but we will need to keep an eye on trends to the northwest
through the morning. Ample low cloudiness developing across
central Georgia this morning currently spreading north.
Indications are this will burn off by late morning. Should see
varying degrees of cloudiness through the day which will likely
keep temperatures a bit cooler than the past few days.
Still...despite only moderate instability... the addition of some
upper-level lift will keep a chance for a few strong
thunderstorms in the forecast with severe chances low.

Models are developing a weak surface low over the region
Wednesday with continued northwesterly upper flow. This should
keep good chances for scattered convection in the forecast...
mainly during the afternoon and evening.

20

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Long-range models agree on possibly a fairly active weather
pattern setting up by Thursday as a large upper ridge retreats
just far enough westward to place  the state on the active
eastern periphery. This will establish a weak northwest flow aloft
that allows subtle disturbances to interact with increasing low
level moisture and daytime heating to produce at least a
scattered coverage of afternoon and evening convection each day.
Models also show a weak surface trough sagging into the state by
late in the weekend... which could provide an added focus for
convection by Sunday and Monday. For now... will continue to show
at least 30-40 percent chance of daytime pops and 20-30 percent
chance of nighttime pops through the extended periods. It still
appears the severe storm threat should remain minimal with
nothing widespread or too organized expected as the environment
remains weakly sheared with only moderate afternoon/evening
instability expected at this time. However... can never rule out
the potential for a few strong to severe storms during peak
daytime heating this time of year. Otherwise... highs mainly in
the 90s and lows in the 70s will persist.

39

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions for most of the TAF period. However, expect
VCSH/TSRA to move through this afternoon yielding brief SUB-VFR
conditions. This activity, which is currently developing across
the north, will continue south and east and arrive in the next
hour. At AHN/MCN/CSG, expect the arrival to be delayed to around
19Z. Most of the precipitation should slowly dwindle after sunset.
Light west flow overnight with lingering convective debris.
Possible stratus/fog development in the early morning hours. Feel
the main area of concern for tomorrow in regards to storms is
across the southern TAF sites (MCN/CSG) where the front/lingering
outflow boundaries will be located.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  73  93  72 /  60  40  40  30
Atlanta         90  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  20
Blairsville     88  68  87  67 /  60  40  40  30
Cartersville    91  71  92  72 /  70  30  30  20
Columbus        93  75  94  74 /  60  40  40  20
Gainesville     89  74  90  72 /  60  40  40  30
Macon           92  73  94  74 /  60  50  40  30
Rome            91  71  92  72 /  70  30  30  20
Peachtree City  92  71  93  72 /  60  40  40  20
Vidalia         93  75  94  74 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE PEAK OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR FLOODING THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

GAZ030>032-021815-
COBB GA-PAULDING GA-POLK GA-
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COBB...PAULDING AND
EASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 138 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DALLAS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MARIETTA...DALLAS...KENNESAW...POWDER SPRINGS...ROCKMART...HIRAM...
BRASWELL...YORKVILLE...DUE WEST...BROWNSVILLE...NEW HOPE...VAN
WERT...NEW GEORGIA...LOST MOUNTAIN PARK...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE AND
CROSS ROADS.

LAT...LON 3408 8490 3399 8454 3378 8478 3377 8488
      3378 8490 3400 8510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 297DEG 25KT 3397 8488