Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
724 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.Update...
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Short wave moving across KY/TN depicted well on water vapor and the
models have picked up on this. With the H5 ridge building across the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into North Carolina...this wave will move
south and then southwest moving into AL/MS by this evening. With the
short wave moving across the CWA today...scattered convection will
develop...mainly across north Georgia and have increased pops to 40
with 30 pops across central Georgia. Convection will diminish after
sunset. The wave moves to the west of the CWA Sunday with the H5
ridge building over the CWA. This should diminish the amount of
convection Sunday...however plenty of moisture remains under the
ridge and daytime heating should produce scattered convection again
with the greatest risk across the mountains.

Heat Index values will increase to 100 to 104 with spotty 105. Will
not issue an advisory at this point. This will need to be monitored.

17

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
The long term starts off with an upper level ridge across the southern
Appalachians and an easterly wave moving across FL. The GFS has this
wave affecting central GA more than the NAM or European models.
At this time think convection will be highly diurnal Sunday evening.

The upper level ridge pattern continues for Monday with mainly
afternoon showers and storms. Most high temperatures will again
be in the 90s except upper 80s for portions of the mountains.

The upper ridge moves over the area for Tuesday and Wednesday but
slightly weaker and continues to slightly drift S Thursday into
Friday. This should continue the pattern of mainly Diurnal showers
and storms across the area...favoring the mountains and portions of
W GA. Highs in the 90s will continue for most areas and slightly
cooler in the mountains.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
No changes to the previous forecast. A short wave will continue
to move across the forecast area today keeping the risk of tsra
across mainly the ATL/AHN areas during the afternoon. CSG/MCN
areas have a risk but it is not great enough to include TSRA in
the TAF at this time but will include a VCSH this afternoon.
Convection will diminish after sunset. Winds will be light and
westerly through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on convection timing and coverage.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  74  96  74 /  30  30  30  20
Atlanta         94  75  95  75 /  30  30  30  20
Blairsville     87  69  89  69 /  40  30  50  20
Cartersville    94  74  94  73 /  40  30  40  20
Columbus        95  75  97  75 /  30  30  30  20
Gainesville     94  73  95  74 /  40  30  40  20
Macon           95  74  96  74 /  30  30  30  20
Rome            95  74  95  73 /  40  30  40  20
Peachtree City  94  73  95  72 /  30  30  30  20
Vidalia         97  75  96  74 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1145 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1145 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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