Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Morning sounding shows a very moist and unstable airmass... with
1.72 pw's and around 4000-4500 J/KG of afternoon mucape. This
coupled with an active northerly flow aloft is already producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of North GA and
Central GA. Expect coverage to increase through the afternoon
hours... with many storms becoming strong to severe... especially
between 2 PM and 10 PM today. SPC continues to show a Marginal Risk
for the state. The main threats this afternoon and evening will be
frequent lightning... locally heavy rain... pea to quarter sized
hail and the greater concern of 40-60+ mph downburst winds... which
could down trees and power lines. The severe storm threat should
greatly diminish by 9-10 pm with loss of daytime heating.

Expect a quiet but muggy overnight... as wet grounds... light winds
and near 100 percent humidity result in some patchy fog toward early
Friday morning. Models agree on the upper ridge centered over TX/OK
building eastward and helping to suppress storm development on
Friday. This coupled with active convection today also supports a
quieter convective day on Friday as the air mass will need a day to
recharge. With all this said... still cannot rule out isolated
storms on Friday during peak heating... warranting 20-30 percent
chance pops across the area Friday afternoon-early evening. NIL pops
looks good by midnight tonight... then by 10 pm on Friday.

Otherwise... leaned toward persistence for lows and took a mav and
met blend for highs on Friday. Also... increased pops significantly
for this afternoon and evening... then near guidance for expected
less coverage on Friday.

39

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Persistent high pressure ridge will remain over the central U.S.
into next week with Georgia along the eastern periphery in the
north/northwest flow. Have continued slight to chance pops through
the extended for afternoon/evening diurnal convection resulting
from varying amounts of moisture over the state each day. Not many
changes were made to the extended forecast aside from minor
updates to account for latest model trends and for neighbor
consistency. Previous forecast discussion follows.

31

/Issued at 414 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016/
A very stagnant pattern remains into the extended forecast with
not much change expected anytime soon. Large east to west oriented
upper ridge stays centered over the central and southern plains
and continues to be the main focus in this weather pattern. This
ridge does weaken a bit and becomes even more elongated (west to
east) through the end of next week...but it continues to direct
the over all flow around the central and mid-south states through
day 7. Moisture continues to rotate around the periphery of the
ridge with slight/chance pops expected everyday across North and
Central Georgia. Looking a bit past day 7...not seeing any drying
trends setting up so it appears we are in this diurnal precip
pattern for a while. There are also no signs of tropical
development in Atlantic basin. Temps also stay warm in the
extended with daytime highs mainly in the 90s and nighttime lows
in the upper 60s and 70s.

01

AVIATION...
00z Update...
Convection is moving south and dissipating this evening. Added a
TEMPO into MCN for the linger convection through 02Z. Clearing
skies overnight with some sct high clouds. Light east/southeast
winds. Feel with rain coverage this afternoon, there may be some
MVFR/IFR stratus development. Confidence highest across AHN. Not
expecting much shower/thunderstorm coverage tomorrow; mainly
across the southern tier (CSG/MCN). Winds veer to south/southwest
around 5 to 8kts in the afternoon/evening hours.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on winds. High confidence remaining elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  95  74  98 /  40  20  20  30
Atlanta         74  94  75  95 /  30  20  20  30
Blairsville     66  90  68  91 /  40  30  20  30
Cartersville    72  94  73  96 /  30  20  20  30
Columbus        74  96  75  96 /  40  30  20  20
Gainesville     72  93  74  95 /  40  20  20  30
Macon           73  96  74  98 /  40  30  20  30
Rome            72  96  73  97 /  30  20  20  30
Peachtree City  71  94  72  95 /  30  20  20  30
Vidalia         74  96  74  97 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
535 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

GAZ071-072-082-212330-
JONES GA-MONROE GA-BIBB GA-
638 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JONES...SOUTHEASTERN
MONROE AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 638 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PAYNE CITY...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF MACON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MACON...PAYNE...PAYNE CITY...WESLEYAN...LAKE TOBESOFKEE...CROSS KEYS...
ARKWRIGHT...BOLINGBROKE...LIZELLA AND DAMES FERRY.

LAT...LON 3280 8386 3282 8388 3282 8389 3284 8389
      3285 8390 3291 8391 3304 8371 3293 8353
      3276 8363 3276 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 035DEG 6KT 3294 8367

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MULBERRY            34.05N  83.72W
07/21/2016                   BARROW             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON GAINESVILLE HIGHWAY AT SHIVA
            BLVD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600556

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
646 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULBERRY                34.04N  83.72W
07/21/2016                   BARROW             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON GAINESVILLE HIGHWAY AT
            MULBERRY RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600557

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
651 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE SELLS             34.06N  83.72W
07/21/2016                   JACKSON            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED AT HIGHWAY 53 AND TAPP WOOD RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600558

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

GAZ084-085-097-212345-
JOHNSON GA-WILKINSON GA-LAURENS GA-
718 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON AND NORTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

AT 718 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DUBLIN...WRIGHTSVILLE...EAST DUBLIN...DUDLEY...LOVETT...TUCKERS CROSSROAD...
SPANN...BREWTON...HARLOW...NICKLESVILLE AND CHAPPELLS MILL.

LAT...LON 3246 8305 3274 8314 3278 8296 3276 8296
      3276 8295 3281 8280 3280 8280 3280 8278
      3279 8277 3277 8277 3277 8275 3258 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 079DEG 10KT 3266 8280

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

GAZ085-220030-
JOHNSON GA-
803 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
EDT...

AT 803 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WRIGHTSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WRIGHTSVILLE...KITE...SPANN...MEEKS...NEW HOME AND DONOVAN.

LAT...LON 3264 8249 3264 8250 3262 8252 3260 8256
      3259 8267 3261 8267 3266 8279 3269 8279
      3272 8286 3278 8274 3280 8269 3278 8266
      3282 8254 3270 8249 3269 8250 3266 8249
      3265 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 253DEG 14KT 3269 8272