Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through this afternoon across central and north Georgia. Another
very warm and muggy day exists with temps in the upr 80s to lwr
90s and heat indices in the 90s to around 100F in a number of
locations.

Elongated upper ridge has stretched itself from the Ozarks region in
Arkansas to the southeast Atlantic coast. Long-duration/strong to
severe storms will be limited through this evening due to this upr
ridge and the fact that the flow aloft is very weak.

More of the same is expected tomorrow /Monday/ as plenty of morning
sun should heat the surface quickly. Upr ridge shifts slightly west
allowing a more northerly upr lvl flow to develop across the region.
Hard to pick out smaller "disturbances" in the upr lvl flow at this
time but they will likely exist and contribute to scattered
thunderstorms across the area by early afternoon. Low to mid lvl
flow will continue to be very weak so convection will tend to be
supported and re-fire along outflow boundaries. Outside of storms,
another warm day is in store with max temps reaching the lower to
mid 90s.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Pattern in long term period dominated by large upper high
centered over Southern Plains and Mid-South. Upper troughing
deepens a little along Eastern CONUS into the Southeast starting
early Thursday but upper ridging appears to build back into the
state late Friday. Good agreement between medium range models with
large scale pattern. Disagreement as usual this time of year is
with finer details of deep moisture and associated convection. As
NW flow sets up Wed- Thurs...could see some drying in north GA
which models indicate...but typically do not see this this time of
year unless dry/cool advection in low and mid-levels is strong...
which it is not. Have adjusted model blend PoPs up a little in
north Georgia. Rest of blended forecast looks quite good with
temps slightly above normal.

SNELSON/16

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are increasing in coverage
across central/north Georgia. There is no significant
forcing/focus to sustain the convection and the flow aloft is very
weak...so a very 'hit or miss' approach to convection this
afternoon. Feel more confident than not to keep 'TEMPO' group out
of ATL at this time but cannot rule out a pop-up shower right over
the airfield at some point this afternoon. Storms may also have a
hard time developing due to upr ridge in place across the region
and drier mid lvl air in place.  Hi-res models are trying to
develop convection south of I-20 later today (bwtn 23-03z) but
having a hard time seeing this happening so have left it dry at
KMCN and KCSG attm. Activity should fall apart after 02z with most
areas convection-free by 05z. Low clouds/fog should not impact the
airports overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence with convection/weather.
High confidence with all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  73  96 /  20  40  10  40
Atlanta         74  93  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
Blairsville     66  87  67  89 /  30  40  10  50
Cartersville    72  92  72  95 /  20  40  20  40
Columbus        74  95  75  95 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     73  91  74  94 /  20  40  10  40
Macon           73  95  74  96 /  20  40  10  30
Rome            71  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  40
Peachtree City  71  93  72  95 /  20  30  20  30
Vidalia         73  95  74  94 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...DJN.83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181115-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
715 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL GEORGIA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
643 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ083-084-172330-
TWIGGS GA-WILKINSON GA-
643 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TWIGGS AND WESTERN WILKINSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GORDON...MOVING SOUTH
AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
JEFFERSONVILLE...GORDON...IVEY...MCINTYRE...MARION...FITZPATRICK...
RIPLEY AND MYRICKS MILL.

LAT...LON 3264 8342 3276 8352 3292 8336 3294 8333
      3290 8320 3263 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 019DEG 5KT 3287 8331

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ033-034-045-172330-
DEKALB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-GWINNETT GA-
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DEKALB...NORTH FULTON
AND SOUTHERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 656 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR JOHNS CREEK
TO NEAR NORCROSS. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
LAWRENCEVILLE...SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...JOHNS CREEK...
ALPHARETTA...DUNWOODY...DULUTH...SNELLVILLE...SUWANEE...LILBURN...
LOGANVILLE...NORCROSS...DORAVILLE...GRAYSON...BERKELEY LAKE...
TUCKER...MOUNTAIN PARK AND MECHANICSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3405 8409 3386 8389 3385 8390 3382 8425
      3407 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 314DEG 4KT 3404 8423 3394 8415

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
709 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ034-045>048-057-172345-
DEKALB GA-HENRY GA-NEWTON GA-GWINNETT GA-ROCKDALE GA-WALTON GA-
709 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB...EASTERN
HENRY...NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN GWINNETT...ROCKDALE AND SOUTHWESTERN
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 707 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
LITHONIA TO NORTHEAST OF JENKINSBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CONYERS...COVINGTON...LOGANVILLE...SOCIAL CIRCLE...OXFORD...
LITHONIA...PORTERDALE...WALNUT GROVE...JERSEY...THE GEORGIA
INTERNATIONAL HORSE PARK...LAKEVIEW ESTATES...BELVEDERE PARK...
SNAPFINGER...GUM CREEK...OAK HILL...ARABIA MOUNTAIN...BELMONT...
ALMON...MAGNET AND PANOLA MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3375 8424 3385 8391 3361 8367 3358 8369
      3343 8391 3345 8393 3340 8398 3339 8397
      3335 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 191DEG 6KT 3373 8409 3342 8398

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ105-107>109-180000-
DODGE GA-WILCOX GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
720 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DODGE...NORTHWESTERN
WILCOX...EASTERN DOOLY AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM EAST OF UNADILLA TO NEAR HAWKINSVILLE TO WEST OF EASTMAN...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...35 TO 45 MPH WIND PRECEDING RAIN OR LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. STRONG
           WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ANY RAIN OR LIGHTNING. DO NOT
           WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
HAWKINSVILLE...UNADILLA...PINEVIEW...UNION...MOCK SPRINGS...CEDAR
CREEK...FINLEYSON...POPE CITY...WALLACE...OCMULGEE BANKS...
TIPPETTVILLE AND PLEASANT VIEW.

LAT...LON 3206 8373 3229 8375 3229 8373 3228 8372
      3228 8370 3229 8370 3229 8361 3226 8330
      3203 8318 3201 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 025DEG 11KT 3227 8362 3222 8350 3223 8335

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ083-084-096-097-109-180030-
TWIGGS GA-DODGE GA-BLECKLEY GA-WILKINSON GA-LAURENS GA-
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS...
NORTHWESTERN DODGE...EASTERN BLECKLEY...SOUTHWESTERN WILKINSON AND
WESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
DANVILLE TO NEAR CHESTER TO NEAR EASTMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

  HAZARD...30 TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
EASTMAN...JEFFERSONVILLE...CHESTER...DEXTER...DUDLEY...CADWELL...
DANVILLE...MONTROSE...ALLENTOWN...DUBOIS...DISTRICT PATH...REBIE...
CARY...ROWLAND...RODDY...YONKERS...CHAPPELLS MILL...GODWINSVILLE...
EMPIRE AND NICKLESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3227 8334 3247 8332 3261 8339 3279 8332
      3276 8311 3261 8301 3223 8302 3210 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 335DEG 8KT 3263 8326 3245 8319 3226 8319

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