Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed within
moist/unstable airmass, typical in mid July. Weak convergence zone
extending SW-NE has supported more organized convection along the I-
20/I-85 corridors this afternoon. Expect coverage to increase north
of I-85/I-20 where better heating/instability exists. Much of the
activity will diminish after sunset with loss of heating but still
expect isolated storms through 10PM-midnight.

Sunday...upr ridge of high pressure trys to build a bit farther east
across northern MS and AL. This will likely turn the flow aloft more
northerly across GA with convection again firing by midday. Believe
areas south of Athens to Atlanta to La Grange line will have higher
chance of seeing storms Sunday. A few organized, stronger storms
will be possible but widespread severe weather is not expected at
this time. Temperatures will remain warm (upper 80s to mid 90s),
especially outside of showers/storms.

DJN.83

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only refreshed temperatures based on the latest guidance.

Synoptic scale pattern at the start of the long term will feature
mid/upper level subtropical high building westward from the Atlantic
across the lower Mississippi Valley...pushing the more significant
belt of westerlies across the northern portion of the country. The
position of this high should suppress widespread convection across
the CWA on Monday...however continued warm temps will likely allow
some isolated diurnal activity to break the cap.

H5 ridge will continue to build west Tue and Wed...and GEFS/ECMWF/CMC
ensemble guidance all hinting at least a 597 dam high centering
over the southern Plains! This positioning will luckily spare us
from brutally hot conditions...however the CWA will be located
within the ring of fire on the ridge periphery so any disturbance
traversing thru the flow will likely act to spark/enhance cloud
cover and/or any convection. As the ridge builds west...a
shortwave will swing across southern Quebec and Ontario...pushing
a sfc frontal system toward the area. Model consensus indicates
the front MAY sweep through the state Tues into Wed...possibly
allowing drier air/PWs just under 1.5 inches and mixing ratios
near 10g/kg/ to filter into at least north Ga behind it as a
1025+mb sfc high settles over New England. POPs look good for
now...although it is unclear how much influence the front will
have should it reach the state. Best chance looks to be across
north Ga Tues and central Ga Tues night/early Wed.

Front will likely stall across central Ga for the remainder of the
period...allowing for highest chances of convection to be across
central Ga...while somewhat drier air may linger across north Ga.

TROPICS: Aside from a few minor tropical/easterly waves...the
tropics will remain quiet for the period with no development
progged by the NHC.

SEVERE: Widespread severe weather is not expected...though with
hot temperatures cannot rule out a few diurnally driven severe
pulse-type storms each afternoon/evening...of course barring any
larger- scale forcing mechanism.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... Afternoon convection firing all
around the airfields making for a challenging short-term forecast.
Westward-moving outflow is about on top of KATL and could switch
winds briefly to the ESE before gradually turning back to a more
prevailing SSW direction. This boundary could be focus for
additional shra/tsra over the next few hours this aftn. Loss of
heating and lack of true lifting mechanism should gradually
diminish convection after 00z, with just spotty showers possible,
especially south between KCSG and KMCN through midnight. Not
confident on development low clouds/ shallow fog overnight but a
higher probability exists in spots that receive heavy rain this
afternoon/evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on convection.
High on all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  72  96 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         73  91  74  94 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     65  87  67  90 /  30  30  30  40
Cartersville    70  92  72  94 /  30  30  20  30
Columbus        74  94  75  96 /  20  30  30  40
Gainesville     71  90  73  94 /  30  30  30  30
Macon           73  95  73  97 /  30  40  30  40
Rome            70  93  71  96 /  20  20  20  30
Peachtree City  70  92  71  94 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         74  94  74  95 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...DJN.83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171530-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WEAKLY DISTURBED MID-LEVELS AND SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...WHILE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ022-033-034-161945-
NORTH FULTON GA-GWINNETT GA-FORSYTH GA-
313 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
GWINNETT AND SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
ALPHARETTA TO ROSWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...JOHNS CREEK...ALPHARETTA...DULUTH...
SUWANEE...BERKELEY LAKE AND BROOKWOOD.

LAT...LON 3418 8415 3399 8404 3396 8430 3397 8432
      3396 8439 3397 8439 3398 8438 3399 8438
      3401 8440 3404 8440 3404 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 251DEG 20KT 3402 8429 3398 8444

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ062-161945-
WARREN GA-
314 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CAMAK...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WARRENTON...NORWOOD...CAMAK...MESENA AND CADLEY.

LAT...LON 3338 8268 3353 8274 3354 8272 3356 8272
      3359 8264 3346 8259 3342 8256 3340 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 251DEG 20KT 3349 8263

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ022-023-034-161945-
GWINNETT GA-FORSYTH GA-HALL GA-
317 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT...FORSYTH
AND SOUTHWESTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SUWANEE...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
SUGAR HILL...SUWANEE...BUFORD...FLOWERY BRANCH...REST HAVEN...LAKE
LANIER ISLANDS...BUFORD DAM-LAKE LANIER PARKS AND HOG MOUNTAIN.

LAT...LON 3415 8389 3403 8390 3402 8411 3404 8412
      3405 8410 3405 8413 3413 8416 3422 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 248DEG 5KT 3409 8410

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ023-024-161945-
BANKS GA-HALL GA-
318 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN
HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 318 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GAINESVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GAINESVILLE...LULA AND GILLSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3441 8358 3429 8359 3429 8362 3428 8363
      3426 8384 3437 8388 3448 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 259DEG 11KT 3434 8379

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ014-022-023-162030-
DAWSON GA-FORSYTH GA-HALL GA-
359 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON...
NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NORTHWEST OF OAKWOOD...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GAINESVILLE...OAKWOOD...CHESTATEE...WAR HILL PARK AND OSCARVILLE.

LAT...LON 3424 8407 3437 8409 3443 8386 3433 8378
      3421 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 263DEG 12KT 3431 8400

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ016-162030-
WHITE GA-
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 401 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR UNICOI STATE PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE
           PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD REMEMBER...
           TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HELEN...UNICOI STATE PARK...SAUTEE...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION
AREA...ROBERTSTOWN...ANNA RUBY FALLS AND BATESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3477 8365 3477 8363 3476 8363 3473 8362
      3472 8364 3468 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364
      3460 8365 3469 8381 3475 8379 3480 8373
      3479 8370 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 240DEG 6KT 3471 8367