Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
513 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

.Late Afternoon Update...
Latest radars show a broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving
into far northwest GA late this afternoon. Instabilities out ahead
and across the rest of far north GA are moderate at best... around
1000-2000 J/KG of cape... so not expecting severe storms across the
far north GA counties at this time... but cannot rule out a few
strong with wind gusts to 45 mph. Further south into west central GA
from maybe Buchanan over to Griffin and down to Columbus is where
greater instabilities are pooled... generally around 2000-3000 J/KG
of cape. So this area has the more supporting airmass for a few
strong storms if the convection in north central AL can hold
together and push into parts of west central GA before we loose
daytime heating. So for now... this area will be the area to watch
over the next few hours. Not expecting anything widespread as it
seems the upper support is weakening... just cannot rule out a few
strong to possibly severe into the early evening hours across parts
of west central GA but only if the AL storms can hold together. I
suspect there will be some weakening as the ongoing convection
approaches the west central GA state line. Hires models do not have
a good handle on this convection... so at this time... expect the
north central AL convection to gradually spread into parts of west
central GA by early evening... maybe from around Haralson county
southward to around Harris or Muscogee county... but should be
weakening... and hopefully some of the weakening convection will
bring some needed rain deeper into the state during the evening.
Expecting a weakening trend to prevail... with any strong storm
threat greatly diminishing by 9-10 pm this evening. Will continue to
monitor things closely and update pops and forecast as needed
through the evening.
/39

.Previous Discussions.../Issued at 311 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Broad troughing over the eastern states should push a surface
front/boundary southward into the TN/OH valleys during the short
term. Also...weak low pressure remains in the vicinity of the
northern Gulf. This increase in dynamics and moisture should help
focus convection over the forecast area through the period. For
this afternoon and evening...the line of thunderstorms moving
through TN and AL should eventually affect northwest GA and have
given that area the highest pops for tonight. looks like isolated
to scattered elsewhere tonight. With approaching surface boundary
later tonight and Friday...have kept the highest pops over the
north...increasing to likely by Friday afternoon. However...the
evolution of storms tonight may affect what happens for the
remainder of the period considering any remaining outflow
boundaries etc.

41

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Current forecast on track...no changes planned. Previous long term
discussion follows...

17

&&

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
/Issued 439 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016/

No major changes to the ongoing long term forecast.

A weakness in the upper ridge will persist across the CWFA through
late Saturday or early Sunday. The ridge will begin building
eastward later on Sunday...and briefly stay overhead through late
Monday/early Tuesday. A longwave trough will try and build down the
east coast for the middle to late part of next week.

At the surface...a weak low pressure trough will remain situated
across eastern GA through most of the period. A frontal boundary
will remain nearly stationary just north of the CFWFA through
the weekend...but begins to creep closer to northern GA late Monday
into early Tuesday as high pressure builds across the Middle
Atlantic. The front will eventually dissipate by mid to late next
week as the high pressure across the Carolinas/Middle Atlantic
builds southward.

It is likely that perturbations in the mid level flow will interact
with the moist and unstable airmass to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area...but no real discernible focus at
this time.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
182Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue across the TAF sites. West winds
5-10kts. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening
but not confident enough to go TEMPO at this time. Better chance
for Friday as a boundary sinks southward into the TN and OH valley.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  93  72  91 /  20  40  40  50
Atlanta         74  91  73  89 /  20  50  40  50
Blairsville     67  86  66  83 /  40  60  50  50
Cartersville    71  89  70  87 /  30  60  40  50
Columbus        74  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  50
Gainesville     73  90  72  87 /  20  50  40  50
Macon           72  94  73  94 /  20  40  40  50
Rome            72  89  70  88 /  50  60  40  50
Peachtree City  70  91  71  89 /  20  40  40  50
Vidalia         75  95  75  94 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151700-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 60 MPH AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE
BEST TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO 8
PM...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN TO JASPER TO
HELEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. ANY SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

GAZ001>003-142100-
DADE GA-CATOOSA GA-WALKER GA-
400 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DADE...NORTHWESTERN CATOOSA AND
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WHITWELL TENNESSEE TO NORTHWEST OF GUNTERSVILLE ALABAMA...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...35 TO 45 MPH WIND PRECEDING RAIN OR LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. STRONG
           WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ANY RAIN OR LIGHTNING. DO NOT
           WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TRENTON...FORT
OGLETHORPE...ROSSVILLE...CHICKAMAUGA...LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN... RISING
FAWN...LAKEVIEW...CHATTANOOGA  VALLEY...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE
PARK...COOPER HEIGHTS...NEW ENGLAND...COLE CITY...MORGANVILLE...
WILDWOOD...HOOKER...FAIRVIEW...STEPHENSVILLE AND EAST RIDGE.

LAT...LON 3459 8553 3498 8560 3499 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 286DEG 30KT 3524 8561 3440 8641

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

GAZ001>003-142130-
DADE GA-CATOOSA GA-WALKER GA-
455 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DADE...NORTHWESTERN CATOOSA AND
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF
CHATTANOOGA TO NEAR TRENTON TO SOUTH OF STEVENSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
TRENTON...FORT OGLETHORPE...ROSSVILLE...CHICKAMAUGA...LOOKOUT
MOUNTAIN...RISING FAWN...LAKEVIEW...CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...CLOUDLAND
CANYON STATE PARK...COOPER HEIGHTS...NEW ENGLAND...COLE CITY...
MORGANVILLE...WILDWOOD...HOOKER...FAIRVIEW...STEPHENSVILLE AND EAST
RIDGE.

LAT...LON 3499 8540 3499 8521 3474 8535 3468 8555
      3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 297DEG 10KT 3510 8546 3486 8560 3478 8584

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

GAZ080-091>093-142245-
MARION GA-MACON GA-TAYLOR GA-SCHLEY GA-
556 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION...
NORTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 555 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEAST OF BUENA VISTA TO SOUTH OF BUTLER TO NEAR IDEAL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
IDEAL...RUPERT...GARDEN VALLEY...MAUK...CHARING AND TAZEWELL.

LAT...LON 3253 8443 3253 8418 3239 8401 3230 8423
      3236 8436 3236 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 233DEG 5KT 3240 8439 3241 8430 3236 8421