Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
904 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Isolated to scattered showers/storms...with isolated strong-
severe...expected for a few more hours. Unsure about the
convection in southern TN to the W. It is expected to weaken
but will need to be watched.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 700 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Current radar loop shows some isolated showers and thunderstorms
across Central and extreme North Georgia. The main area of
convection is still across Tennessee and Kentucky and moving
slowly south and east. the HiRes models are not in very good
agreement with the timing and intensity of this wave affecting GA
but they do agree that it will. Just looking at the way they
initialized it appears the 4kWRF has the best handle on this and
it shows the complex of thunderstorms moving into N GA around 22z-
23z. It also shows this complex diminishing as it moves south
into the area with very little remnants left over the area by 03z-
04z. This appears to fit well with SPCs Day 1 marginal risk
across North and eastern portions of the state. The HiRes models
seem to be in a little better agreement for Sat...showing
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire area as
next wave moves in with upper level West to Northwesterly flow.
Diurnally driven instabilities also increase across the area Sat
so this also matches well with SPCs day 2 outlook thinking of just
a General risk across the state.

Heat Index values are still expected to get into the 105-108
degree range Sat afternoon across portions of East Central GA.
Will need to issue another Heat advisory for a similar area as
today for Sat afternoon.

01

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Made a few tweaks to the extended portion of the forecast.

An unsettled period of weather is expected from Sunday through early
next week. A weak boundary will remain situated across northern GA
through Monday/early Tuesday, but should become diffuse by the
middle of the week. The mid level flow will remain slightly nw/w
through the period...and perturbations in the flow are expected to
interact with the boundary...serving to focus scattered showers and
thunderstorms. PWATS at or above 2 inches are expected into
Tuesday...so any storms will be very efficient rainfall producers.

Ridging tries to build in for the middle part of the week. However,
models are keeping a weakness in the ridge overhead.

The highest pops should remain across northern GA through much of
the extended period. Have adjusted values slightly upward Sunday
through Tuesday.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to continue. Isolated showers/storms
around ATL will dissipate by later evening. Surface winds
diminishing to WSW around 5 kts or less for the overnight.
High level ceilings possible late tonight and early Saturday.
Chance for afternoon showers/storms on Saturday with surface winds
around 10 kts with gusts near 20 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for effects of any evening showers/storms.
Medium to High confidence all other elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  74  94 /  20  20  30  40
Atlanta         76  95  75  91 /  20  30  30  50
Blairsville     68  89  67  86 /  50  30  30  50
Cartersville    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  50
Columbus        77  97  75  93 /  20  30  30  50
Gainesville     75  94  74  90 /  20  20  30  40
Macon           76  99  75  96 /  20  30  30  50
Rome            74  95  73  90 /  20  30  40  50
Peachtree City  74  95  73  91 /  10  30  30  50
Vidalia         76  98  76  96 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM UPDATE...BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
818 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
818 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE HIGHEST NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CHATSWORTH TO DAHLONEGA
TO CLEVELAND. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

GAZ037-047-049-090000-
MORGAN GA-OCONEE GA-WALTON GA-
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...OCONEE AND
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 729 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MONROE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MONROE...WATKINSVILLE...SOCIAL CIRCLE...NORTH HIGH
SHOALS...BOSTWICK... BETWEEN...GOOD HOPE...BISHOP...JERSEY...ATHENS-
CLARKE COUNTY... NICHOLASVILLE...GRATIS...BARNETT
SHOALS...FARMINGTON...CAMPTON...EBENEZER... STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN
OF GA...BOLD SPRINGS...PANNELL AND APALACHEE.

LAT...LON 3391 8376 3389 8376 3392 8368 3391 8365
      3393 8361 3392 8340 3389 8337 3387 8333
      3386 8333 3385 8330 3373 8331 3370 8340
      3365 8337 3369 8383 3370 8384 3391 8382
      3393 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 271DEG 29KT 3382 8367

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
732 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

GAZ036>039-090000-
OGLETHORPE GA-OCONEE GA-CLARKE GA-WILKES GA-
732 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OGLETHORPE...EASTERN OCONEE...
EASTERN CLARKE AND WESTERN WILKES COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 731 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WHITEHALL TO NEAR MAXEYS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
LEXINGTON...ATHENS...WINTERVILLE...CRAWFORD...ARNOLDSVILLE...MAXEYS..
.
RAYLE...WHITEHALL...ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY...STEPHENS...BARNETT SHOALS...
JAMES HOLLAND YOUTH SPORTS CMPX...DUNLAP...PHILOMATH AND HUTCHINGS.

LAT...LON 3370 8285 3370 8293 3373 8295 3370 8299
      3370 8303 3371 8306 3370 8312 3376 8327
      3376 8329 3401 8341 3399 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 271DEG 21KT 3389 8330 3378 8321

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
917 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

GAZ006-007-090145-
GILMER GA-FANNIN GA-
917 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GILMER AND FANNIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 917 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES WEST OF BLUE
RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUE
RIDGE...MORGANTON...HIGDON...JONES MILL...LOVING...DIAL...EPWORTH...
COLWELL...HURST...COHUTTA WILDERNESS...CHERRY LOG...MINERAL BLUFF
AND HEMP.

LAT...LON 3495 8418 3494 8417 3472 8417 3484 8460
      3486 8462 3498 8461 3499 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 278DEG 32KT 3490 8447