Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
836 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

The latest SPC mesoanalysis of CAPE clearly shows the highest
values across the southern tier with 2500 to near 3000 J/KG of
energy to work with. Interestingly...similar values now over
central Alabama where convection is blossoming all the way to
north of the I20 corridor. Lesser values over north central and
north GA but will need to monitor closely if these values creep up
as well leading to more convection than first thought. Currently
have 20 pops in the grids for the Atlanta metro but if trends
continue will need to bump these up. Otherwise...have 60 pops for
the extreme south where still think there is an opportunity for
for enhanced development given instability and boundary in place.

For tonight...convection could hold on for the first part of the
overnight. Models also show a developing SW flow aloft that allows
for some upglide and enhanced clouds for portions of North GA. To
the south of the boundary lower cigs and vsby possible but have
limited to just patchy fog in the grids for now.

For Thu...not much change in the moisture profile anticipated with
precipitable water values well under an inch over NW GA keeping
pops at nil while extreme southern sections will be pushing 2 plus
inches again. Will indicate a sharp pop gradient due to this and
introduce some likely pops for the last tier of counties
southward. Given fluctuation in trough axis anticipated...would
not take much to shift this enhanced pop axis further north so
will need to be monitored closely.

Deese

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

Previous Discussion...
The eastern trough will hold through the end of the week...then
flatten and lift north putting the CWA in a light westerly flow.
Several impulses will move through the upper flow. With abundant
surface moisture continuing over the CWA...expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop...mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Probabilities will increase...especially across
north GA...this weekend and into early next week as a surface
trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and stalling over the
CWA.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA diminishing across the area with the loss of daytime
heating. Clouds are FEW to SCT across the are but the models are
showing some BKN050 moving in over the area between 02z-08z.
continued with earlier thinking on the timing of it moving into
the ATL area by 03z. winds are mainly out of the NW but wind
speedsare 5kt of less so seeing some VRB at times. will continue
to see light winds overnight with the winds turning to the W/SW
shortly after day break. wind speeds will stay 10kt or less
through the period. May see some isolated SHRA/TSRA pop back up
again Thu afternoon so threw in a PROB30 between 19z-23z Thu. will
need to see just how far the drier air moves into N GA to see if
we need to increase that PROB group to a TEMPO or get rid of it
all together.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements except medium confidence on Mid
level clouds overnight.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  71  93 /  20  30  30  20
Atlanta         71  90  72  91 /  20  30  30  20
Blairsville     62  85  62  87 /  10  20  20  20
Cartersville    65  90  67  92 /  20  20  20  10
Columbus        73  91  72  91 /  20  40  40  20
Gainesville     70  89  70  90 /  20  30  30  20
Macon           71  91  72  92 /  20  50  50  20
Rome            65  92  66  93 /  10  20  20  10
Peachtree City  68  90  69  91 /  20  30  30  20
Vidalia         73  90  74  90 /  40  60  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-300745-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
341 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM BLUE RIDGE TO CEDARTOWN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES BETTER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND STALLS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
925 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

GAZ025-027-036>038-047-049-300200-
MADISON GA-MORGAN GA-OGLETHORPE GA-OCONEE GA-CLARKE GA-JACKSON GA-
WALTON GA-
925 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...CLARKE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 924 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DANIELSVILLE TO NEAR GOOD HOPE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MONROE...JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...WATKINSVILLE...DANIELSVILLE...ATHENS.
.. LOGANVILLE...ARCADE...NICHOLSON...COMER...WINTERVILLE...BOGART...N
ORTH HIGH
SHOALS...COLBERT...BOSTWICK...ARNOLDSVILLE...ILA...BETWEEN...GOOD
HOPE AND BISHOP.

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3411 8303 3410 8303 3367 8349
      3379 8393 3392 8379 3389 8376 3392 8368
      3391 8365 3397 8354 3404 8357 3405 8366
      3419 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 264DEG 9KT 3411 8329 3376 8364

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