Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Latest surface analysis shows a pre-frontal trough near a Carrollton
to Gainesville line... with area radars showing numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing along and south of this trough axis.  Hires
radar models show this convection pushing south of the Atlanta metro
area by 4-5 pm... but think it could be slightly sooner. Expect the
frontal trough to continue sagging southward into central GA this
afternoon-evening... shifting the greater rain chances and
thunderstorm threat there through the afternoon and evening hours.
Although no widespread severe storms are expected with marginal
instability and forcing expected to persist... a few storms could
become strong and possibly even severe mainly across parts of
central GA during max heating... with strong gusty winds... very
heavy rain... and occasional cloud to ground lightning being the
main storm threats through the early to mid evening hours.

Models show the drier air spreading into north GA this afternoon and
overnight... and eventually spreading into central GA early
Wednesday morning. However... they agree on the trough/front
stalling somewhere near a Columbus to Macon line on Wednesday. This
will warrant holding onto a chance of mainly afternoon convection
for parts of central GA on Wednesday.

Otherwise... went with a mav and met blend through the period for
temps... and increased pops above guidance where needed for this
evening and then across parts of central GA for Wednesday afternoon.

39

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
The July 4th weekend looks to be very summer-like with the
least shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday and the most
on Monday. Stayed tuned to future forecasts.

BDL

Previous Discussion...
Models in good agreement through the long term. The eastern H5
trough will continue to have weak short waves moving rapidly
through the flow. This will be enough to continue the risk of
thunderstorms to parts of the CWA...mainly south of the fall line.
As the eastern trough flattens this weekend...a ridge of high
pressure will build into the Gulf of Mexico spreading moisture
into the Southeast U.S. This will increase chances of
thunderstorms across the CWA Saturday through Independence
Day...with the highest chances across north Georgia.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered convection currently developing along a trough axis that
stretches across the Atlanta area will warrant a tempo -tsra from 18-
19z today for Atlanta area taf sites. Then this convection should
push south... with maybe a few lingering -shra around thru 20-21z
for ATL...but VCSH should handle that threat. AHN...CSG and MCN taf
sites will have the greater tsra threat thru the afternoon. All
convection should dissipate or push south of CSG and MCN by 23-24z
today. May see some patchy fog and low stratus in the morning with
wet grounds in place. Current NW winds around 8kts or less should
swing over to NE by 20-21z today... but then swing back NW by 06-09z
Wed. Expect a dry NW wind around 8kts or less on Wed... with
few to sct mid level cu/sc developing Wed afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to High on all elements.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  92  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
Atlanta         71  92  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
Blairsville     62  86  61  84 /  10  10  10  30
Cartersville    66  91  64  90 /  10  10  10  20
Columbus        72  91  71  92 /  40  30  20  30
Gainesville     69  91  69  88 /  20  20  10  20
Macon           71  92  70  93 /  40  30  20  40
Rome            67  92  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
Peachtree City  68  91  67  91 /  30  20  10  20
Vidalia         74  91  73  92 /  70  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-290800-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS...AND THE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF AN ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST RISK OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE FROM NOON TO 10
PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>