Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
830 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

Update...
Have raised pops across the northwest corner based on radar trends. No
other changes at this time.

41

Previous...
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Current mosaic radar loop shows showers and thunderstorm
developing across the entire southeastern U.S. Currently the
majority of the storms are across north GA...but with the
increased moist southwesterly flow...that will change over the
next 24 to 36 hours. The main upper ridge over the region is
shifting east as northern branch upper low continues to move east
across the great lake states. The deepening upper low and
associated trough will continue to merge with the southern branch
upper level low over southern TX tonight/Sunday morning. This will
help to increase moisture/energy and instability across the region
Sunday. Southwest flow ahead of the main front should help support
a line of showers/storms Sunday afternoon. The front should make
it into northwest GA by Sunday evening with drier/cooler air
moving into the area Monday.

01

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Primary concerns in the long term period are on lingering chance
for convection Monday and Tuesday as front slows and becomes
stationary over the state as and on impact, if any, from soon to
be Tropical Storm Colin over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Medium range models agree on slowing front associated with short
wave moving through Sunday and Monday. This could be partly as a
result of model forecasts of what is to become TS Colin in the
northeast GOM. Model PoP forecasts pretty reasonable, particularly
blend of latest guidance and previous forecast, which keeps fairly
high PoP, 30-60pct, over the SE 2/3rds of CWA Monday and Monday
night.

Strong or even isolated severe convection cant be ruled out but
parameters not as favorable Monday as they are Sunday.

Other concern is upcoming TS Colin. Not a named storm yet so no
official track forecasts. Based on consensus of model forecasts...
if there was to be a center...it would affect northern and central
FL with heavy rain. Center forecast to become asymmetrical as storm
becomes stretched east to west by front to its north. Not a true
tropical cyclone by any means. Regardless, too soon to predict an
exact track or impact, but at this time, no direct impacts from
Colin are expected over north and central Georgia.

Once these features move out Tuesday night, rest of week will be
very dry with abundant sunshine. Wednesday and Thursday will
actually see seasonable to slightly below normal temps before heat
gets turned back on. 90s are expected for max temps Friday and the
following weekend.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016/
Models in good agreement through the long term. The cold front will
move across north Georgia Sunday night and stall across central
Georgia Monday as a tropical low develops over the eastern Gulf and
moves across north Florida. Showers and thunderstorms will end
across north Georgia by Monday but will continue across central
Georgia through Monday and Monday night. As the tropical low moves
into the Atlantic Tuesday...dry air will spread across the CWA
ending the precip across central GA. The H5 trough will shift off
the east coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S.
This will keep a northwest flow over the CWA. Temperatures will
begin near normal early in the long term...but will moderate into
the 90s across most of the CWA by the end of next week.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail but will see some MVFR
conditions in and around SHRA/TSRA tonight and Sunday. Increased
moisture may bring mvfr ceilings to the taf sites 09z to 14z.
Could be some SHRA/TSRA around the taf sites all night but
will generally wait and see how things develop. Will see
more convection Sunday afternoon with increased instability.
Winds will remain southwest overnight 5 to 7kt and increase
on Sunday with some gusts near thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence Medium to High on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  83  68  85 /  40  60  50  40
Atlanta         71  82  70  85 /  50  60  50  30
Blairsville     66  76  62  82 /  60  70  50  10
Cartersville    69  81  66  85 /  60  70  40  20
Columbus        72  83  70  85 /  50  60  50  50
Gainesville     69  79  67  84 /  50  60  50  30
Macon           71  86  70  85 /  40  60  50  60
Rome            69  82  65  86 /  60  60  30  20
Peachtree City  70  82  67  84 /  50  60  50  40
Vidalia         73  89  72  84 /  50  50  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
802 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

GAZ041-042-050030-
CARROLL GA-HARALSON GA-
802 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CARROLL AND HARALSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 802 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BUCHANAN TO NEAR ABERNATHY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BUCHANAN...BREMEN...TALLAPOOSA...MOUNT ZION...WACO AND BOWDON
JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3379 8529 3391 8505 3390 8505 3369 8507
      3360 8533 3370 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 226DEG 17KT 3376 8521 3363 8534

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
840 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

GAZ006-008-050115-
UNION GA-FANNIN GA-
840 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UNION AND
NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 840 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MORGANTON...OR NEAR
BLUE RIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
IVY LOG...MINERAL BLUFF...LOVING...NOTTELY DAM AND CULBERSON.

LAT...LON 3496 8398 3489 8430 3495 8435 3499 8430
      3499 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 241DEG 18KT 3493 8428