Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
230 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The summer time pattern will continue with scattered diurnally
driven afternoon convection dominating the discussion through the
short term. Morning sounding and latest analysis shows a slightly
more moist and continued moderately unstable environment. This
coupled with a slightly more active southwest flow aloft will once
again support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Although a handful of storms could
become strong or even severe this afternoon... latest thinking is
the more moist air mass... coupled with slightly less favorable or
less steep lapse rates due to some mid level warm air should help
hold most storms below severe limits today... unlike yesterday. At
this time... it appears the greatest strong to severe storm threat
will be across far north GA where an active southwest flow aloft...
along with orographic lift could enhance storm updrafts... and also
across parts of central GA... mainly along and south of a Hamilton
to Milledgeville line... where temps are quickly climbing into the
mid and upper 90s under ample sunshine. The main storm threats will
be strong to damaging winds and frequent cloud to ground
lightning... but even tho the freezing level is 1000 feet higher
today... still could see small to medium sized hail as well.
Stronger mid level southwest winds will help keep storms moving a
bit faster from the southwest to northeast today... so rainfall
amounts may not be quite as heavy as seen yesterday unless training
occurs... however still could see around 1.0 to 2.0 inches in a
short time for a few areas... which could result in brief ponding
of water over low lying areas... so watch for water on roadways.

On Friday... models are showing high pressure building aloft in
response to low pressure deepening over Texas. This could help
hinder afternoon convection... or at least result in slightly less
coverage. However... this ridging will also help push daytime highs
into the 90s for most areas... so will continue to plan on at least
low scattered coverage by 1-2 pm on Friday. The ridging should
greatly hinder severe storm development and SPC is only showing a
general thunder threat at this time.

Otherwise... will once again see partly cloudy afternoons and mostly
clear nights with temperatures running about 5-8 degrees above
normal. A MAV and MET MOS blend for temperatures and pops looked
reasonable through the period.

39

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Current extended forecast period grids remain consistent with latest
medium range model trends and I have not made too many changes to
the current long term forecast grids with this cycle. Best chances
for widespread beneficial rainfall still appear to be late Saturday
though late Sunday as upper trough axis transits the area along with
an associated cold front. Although best upper dynamics remain well
north of the state...decent low/mid-level wind field accompanying
the front along with moderate instability indicate we will need to
keep an eye on trends for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday.
Medium range models are now developing a potentially interesting
tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and sweeping it
across Florida early next week. Not great consistency with
yesterday's 12Z runs as far as strength...location and timing...but
surprisingly decent agreement between the GFS...ECMWF and Canadian
models. Based on this...confidence is not super strong right now...
but interest has been piqued. After this gulf system...if current
model trends pan out...sweeps east into the Atlantic we are still
looking at an extended period of good northwesterly/westerly upper
flow which should eventually drive the cold front through the
forecast area allowing for noticeably drier and milder air to
dominate the region by mid-week.

20

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail with occasional mid level cigs mainly in
the afternoon and evening with daytime convection and afternoon cu
around 5-7kft. Best chances for tempo TSRA at all airports will be
between 19-23z today and Fri. Winds will mix down ssw by 18-19z
today and persist from the sw around 7kts or less through late this
afternoon or early evening... then winds back sse by 01-03z this
evening with speeds 3kts or less. Winds mix down sw again by 15z Fri
and remain sw on Fri with speeds around 6-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing and coverage of afternoon storms today and Friday.
High on all else.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  92  70  90 /  40  40  30  50
Atlanta         71  91  73  88 /  30  40  30  50
Blairsville     63  85  65  83 /  50  50  30  60
Cartersville    66  92  68  88 /  30  40  30  50
Columbus        70  93  72  91 /  20  30  30  40
Gainesville     69  90  70  87 /  40  40  30  50
Macon           68  94  71  91 /  20  30  30  40
Rome            66  92  68  88 /  30  40  30  50
Peachtree City  66  92  68  88 /  30  40  30  40
Vidalia         71  94  73  94 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031115-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
115 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A WARM UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST TIME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE FROM 1 PM THROUGH 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY KEEPING A RISK OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS THERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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