Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
138 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1118 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016/

UPDATE...

Initial abundant mid level cloud cover has limited instability
across the area but now plenty of breaks prior to the development
of cu field should result in a quick increase in instability. In
fact this is already taking place across portions of AL where
CAPE values have increased to over 2000 J/KG and convective
activity is on the upswing. expect this zone to shift east through
early afternoon and high end chance to low end likely coverage
looks on target for the northern half of the forecast area.
Although this initial phase of convection doesnt look to be
especially strong or severe, we do still have cold temps aloft
with close to -12C so isolated wind or hail threat is not out of
the question.

More organized activity to come through later this evening but
much will be dependent on how atmosphere is worked over from
afternoon convection. Will maintain likely pops for the North for
now but may end up being more central Georgia based on the better
instabilityprofile later today.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 709 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued /

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Current mosaic radar loop shows a line of showers
and thunderstorms moving east across KY this morning. This line is
expected to continue moving east as the main frontal boundary moves
into the region later this afternoon. This boundary will move into
the MS river valley this afternoon and into NW GA by 00Z-03Z. With
increased moisture and instability across the region...will see
showers and thunderstorms with the possibility of some isolated
severe storms this afternoon and evening. The best location for
severe storms will be across north GA where the deeper moisture and
best instabilities will be. This lines up well with the current
marginal risk outlook SPC has north GA under for today and tonight.
Our short term Hi-Res models are in very good agreement showing the
convection blossoming around 17z-18z and continuing across the
state through 03z-06z Friday. The front sweeps through the state
friday with a drier airmass moving in and clearing things out from
NW to SE through Friday night.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
A dry and stable air mass will spread over the region Friday
night behind a departing cold front. The dry pattern will persist
over the weekend as a reinforcing dry cold front sweeps across
the area saturday night. Behind this front... a trailing ridge of
high pressure will drift across the tn valley region and settle
off the mid atlantic coast by late Monday afternoon. This will
reestablish a moist southerly wind flow by Monday night that will
increase area moisture through mid week. Models agree rain chances
returning to the area by Tuesday and Wednesday as a series of
upper disturbances embedded in the southwest flow interact with
increasing moisture and instability... especially in the afternoon
and evening hours. The greater rain chances are expected to be on
Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary approaches. However... long
range models agree on this boundary stalling and possibly washing
out just west and north of the state by Wednesday night.
Therefore... still much uncertainty on timing and would not be
surprised if the greater rain chances slip until later in the work
week.

Otherwise... still looks like a cool northwest flow will bring
near normal temperatures to the area for the weekend and into
Monday. Then the developing southerly flow will begin the warming
trend into the middle of next week.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

SHRA and TSRA continue to develop mainly north of the terminals
at this hour but prospects for the ATL terminals look to be in the
increase quickly. Will therefore push TEMPO up to 18Z to 22Z for
northern sites but keep aft 20Z further south. Will need to
account for actual line of showers that moves through later in the
TAF period along front but will just put in a predominant group
for now to account for this. Still a chance for some MVFR just as
rain ends and front pushes through so have included in the latest
TAF set.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA timing and potential.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  64  83  55 /  40  40  20   5
Atlanta         85  65  80  58 /  40  40  20   0
Blairsville     81  59  76  50 /  60  60  20   0
Cartersville    85  61  79  52 /  50  50  20   0
Columbus        88  66  84  59 /  30  30  30   5
Gainesville     84  63  80  56 /  60  50  20   0
Macon           89  66  85  56 /  20  30  30   5
Rome            85  61  79  52 /  60  60  10   0
Peachtree City  85  63  80  52 /  40  40  20   0
Vidalia         89  67  87  60 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Deese

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

GAZ002>004-121815-
CATOOSA GA-WHITFIELD GA-WALKER GA-
138 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CATOOSA...WESTERN WHITFIELD AND
WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 137 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LAFAYETTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DALTON...LAFAYETTE...RINGGOLD...FORT OGLETHORPE...CHICKAMAUGA...TUNNEL
HILL...NAOMI...BLUE SPRING...BOYNTON...NOBLE...COOPER HEIGHTS...ROCKY FACE...
BEAUMONT...ROCK SPRING...INDIAN SPRINGS...LINWOOD AND WOOD STATION.

LAT...LON 3476 8498 3463 8533 3478 8545 3499 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 236DEG 17KT 3475 8532