Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Peachtree City GA
127 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued /

UPDATE...

The latest regional surface analysis shows high pressure in
control from the sandhills of the Carolinas through central and
south Georgia. On the north side of this feature, a moist
southwest flow will prime the environment for approaching
shortwave later today. Trajectory of this feature looks to be more
toward the east than south with time taking it over the Carolinas
but certainly enough momentum in our area it appears to warrant
chance pops late this afternoon.

Southern extent of pop axis remains in question with some of the
short term hi-res guidance taking a broken line well south of I20.
Others are less aggressive and for now will limit to slight chance
but bring pop/no pop zone further south with this update. Given
instability expected, there certainly could be some strong storms
but these will be confined to the far northern tier of the
forecast area.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued /

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE ACROSS KY AND TN THIS MORNING. THIS LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO N GA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT ALL OF
OUR MODELS ARE SHOWING IT WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS NOSING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY
TO NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITIES NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW ONLY
LOOKING AT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTH AND CENTRAL GA ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FROM SPC TODAY AND THU. TEMPS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF... BOTH MODELS
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY EVENING... THEN ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... WITH THE GREATEST STORM THREAT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA
THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...
IT APPEARS 25-35KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS PLACED MAINLY NORTH GA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING
WITH A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AND A
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE... BEHIND FRIDAYS COLD FRONT... A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MONDAY WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. 39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

As upper level system moves into portions of far north GA,
beginning to see some SHRA and TSRA in these areas. Further south,
closer to the ATL terminals, much more isolated activity and have
chosen to handle with VCSH. Otherwise, a VFR forecast in store
with only an approaching frontal system to be concerned with on
Thursday. Looks like main effects will be late requiring only ATL
to have a PROB30 at this time.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA chances.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  65  89  65 /  30  30  30  40
Atlanta         85  67  86  66 /  20  30  30  50
Blairsville     80  60  82  60 /  40  20  50  50
Cartersville    85  63  86  63 /  30  30  40  50
Columbus        87  66  89  67 /   5   5  30  40
Gainesville     83  66  86  65 /  30  30  30  50
Macon           89  64  90  67 /  10  10  30  30
Rome            85  62  86  62 /  20  20  40  50
Peachtree City  86  62  86  63 /  20  20  30  40
Vidalia         88  66  90  68 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Deese

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

GAZ016-111845-
WHITE GA-
218 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

AT 217 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HELEN...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CLEVELAND...HELEN...UNICOI STATE PARK...SAUTEE...LEAF...ROBERTSTOWN...ANNA
RUBY FALLS AND BATESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3474 8362 3473 8362 3472 8364 3469 8364
      3465 8366 3462 8364 3460 8364 3456 8363
      3455 8362 3460 8377 3476 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 285DEG 18KT 3466 8363