Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.LATE EVENING UPDATE...
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATCH AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER SUCH SATURATED GROUND COULD CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS ALONG THE TYPICAL LOW LYING... FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. SO CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING TONIGHT AS
WATER MAY STILL SPILL OVER SOME ROADS. /39

.PREV DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED 303 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST WITH DEW POINTS STARTING TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. A FEW STRONG WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN AREA
IN CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE AREA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SANDERSVILLE
AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATCH AREA...SO IT HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE SURFACE FRONT SEEMS TO STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
POPS GENERALLY ATLANTA TO ATHENS AND SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH COMES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

41

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LAST OF THE RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS TO EXIT THE SE CWA TO START THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS THAN THE GFS OR
EUROPEAN.

DRY FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND SPREADS MAINLY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PROBLEM THEN BECOMES ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID U.S. AND SPREADS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY. THE AIRMASS
GETS REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THE OVERALL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS TO HOW COLD...
TIMING AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES STARTING BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD AND RANGING NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

BDL/01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016/

RAINS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS AND IS PUSHING
EAST OF AHN AND CSG AT THIS TIME. MCN WILL BE IN THE RAIN SHIELD
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITE. VFR
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THU
MORNING... BUT SHOULD SCT BY 17-18Z THU AT ATL. WNW WINDS AROUND 6
TO 8KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING... THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW
AROUND 8-10KTS BY 05-06Z THU. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY 15Z THU AND
GUST INTO THU EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  58  31  52 /  30  20   0   0
ATLANTA         41  53  30  50 /  20  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     35  49  25  47 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    37  52  27  49 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        44  56  31  53 /  30  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     41  54  30  50 /  20  10   0   0
MACON           48  56  32  54 /  70  20   5   0
ROME            36  52  27  49 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  40  54  28  51 /  20  10   0   0
VIDALIA         54  58  37  56 / 100  80  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1104 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-050415-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1104 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... BUT STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE THREAT FOR MIXED WINTER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS AND REFINED AS THE SYSTEMS APPROACH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUMMIT REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1208 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

GAZ086-098-110>113-041100-
WHEELER GA-MONTGOMERY GA-TOOMBS GA-TREUTLEN GA-TELFAIR GA-EMANUEL GA-
1208 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...MONTGOMERY...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TELFAIR AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM EST...

AT 1206 AM EST...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WAS CONTINUING TO TRAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR
           POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER
           COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
SWAINSBORO...MCRAE...LYONS...SOPERTON...ALAMO...MOUNT VERNON...
VIDALIA...HELENA...TWIN CITY...LUMBER CITY...GLENWOOD...MILAN...
UVALDA...STILLMORE...OAK PARK...AILEY...SCOTLAND...HIGGSTON...
GARFIELD AND SANTA CLAUS.

LAT...LON 3178 8303 3184 8317 3190 8319 3219 8288
      3227 8276 3234 8273 3281 8223 3274 8212
      3266 8208 3260 8200 3254 8203 3256 8208
      3252 8215 3235 8225 3217 8218 3191 8223
      3197 8244 3196 8257 3192 8268 3178 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 217DEG 19KT 3255 8216 3179 8296