Fire Weather Watch 1, NWS Atlanta, GA

Baldwin County, GA, Banks County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Butts County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Catoosa County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Chattooga County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dade County, GA, Dawson County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Greene County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Hall County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Harris County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Macon County, GA, Madison County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Murray County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Pike County, GA, Polk County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Towns County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Troup County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Union County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walker County, GA, Walton County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, White County, GA, Whitfield County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Overall tranquil conditions across Georgia today with high pressure
influence at the sfc and aloft. This has allowed temperatures to
warm up rather nicely this afternoon. If you're enjoying the
continued warmth be sure to savor it because changes are on the
horizon.

Overnight tonight...a strong cold front will begin to move across
the CWA...bringing some of the coolest weather we've seen in quite
some time behind it. The front should be on our doorstep by 09z Sat.
12z guidance suggests that the strongest dynamics will remain
confined to areas well north of us...essentially pointing us towards
another dry fropa. However...a subtle shortwave/currently located
along the Red River TX/OK border/ will migrate toward the area. Some
lift with this feature...along with workable H5 height falls...and
sufficient frontogentic forcing indicate that a few light showers
could be possible across mainly the mountain counties through mid
morning. Not a drought buster...though...by any means.

Main concern on Saturday will be strong winds behind the front. By
12z...gusts will be noticeable across NW Ga and will quickly filter
into the remainder of the CWA through the morning hours. By
afternoon...winds will likely gust between 30-40kt. For this
reason...have issued a Wind Advisory and Fire Danger Statement 12z
Sat-05z Sun for the entire CWA. Smoke will be a concern once again
as winds shift to the north and allow plumes to travel southward.
See SPS for further details. Aside from some low-level clouds in the
morning...skies will be clear Saturday.

Saturday night....very strong cold air advection in the wake of the
cold front will be in place as a 1033mb sfc high slides into the
lower MS Valley. Although winds will remain elevated...temps will
plummet well into the 30s. For all of north Georgia and portions of
central Georgia...a Freeze Watch has been issued.

Kovacik

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

No significant changes made in the extended forecast grids with this
cycle. 12Z model run shows medium range models fairly consistent
with recent runs and continuing in relatively good agreement through
the end of next week. Still looking at seasonably cool and dry
weather to start the period as the region remains under persistent
northwesterly upper flow pattern through Monday. Temperatures
moderate some by late Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday as weak
upper ridging over the area transitions to southwesterly upper flow
ahead of the next system approaching the area. Models are still
indicating sufficient southerly flow ahead of the system to tap at
least a moderate amount of gulf moisture with a chance of
precipitation Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Please see the previous Long Term Forecast Discussion below.

20

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty winds will be the greatest concern on Saturday. Winds will
begin to noticeably increase beginning around sunrise Saturday
morning...generally sustained between 15 and 25kts...with gusts
between 30-40kts. Min RH values will be around 35-45 percent across
north Georgia...and between 27 to 30 percent most of central
Georgia. Although conditions are borderline for Red Flag criteria
across central counties on Saturday...min RH values just don't quite
reach critical thresholds. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued
for all counties on Saturday. Subsequent shifts may adjust this as
necessary but regardless...high fire danger remains a concern on
Saturday. Strong winds amidst such dry conditions will allow for
rapid fire spread.

Please Remember...Extreme to Exceptional Drought conditions exist
across north and most of central Georgia and the resulting
critically dry fuels will keep the risk of wildfires continuing
across the area.

Kovacik

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016/

Previous LONG TERM Forecast Discussion/Saturday Night through
Thursday/...

Some of the coldest air of this young season expected as we begin
the long term period. A 1033mb high will settles into the Arklatex
allowing for a continued moderate to strong NW flow into the local
area. Will definitely be a freeze type of the advective variety as
gradient remains just as strong through 12Z Sun. Looking like with
the latest guidance numbers coming in that it will be point north of
I20 on the west side and I 85 on the east for the most likely freeze
candidates. In addition...models consistent in painting some mid 20s
over the NE mountains where a few hours of a hard freeze will be
possible. Freeze watch looks in the offing but still 4 periods out
and will have to leave it for the day shift for now.

A more wide expanse area will reach freezing or below for Monday
morning but will need to decide which counties can be removed
based on Sat nights freeze and the fact that growing season
officially ends as far as freeze products go on the 20th of the
month.

Next system still looks on track for next Wed with models
continuing to flip flop on how much moisture is available with
this system. More is there this run compared to 24 hours ago and
would almost certainly lead to categorical to likely pops if this
scenario pans out. But given continued drought and the propensity
of the models to back off as the system approaches...will keep mid
range chance as a max in there for now.

Deese

AVIATION... 18Z Update... Clear skies will prevail across all TAF
sites rest of today and most of the overnight. Smoke not a concern
today with light winds mainly flirting around the W side. Tonight a
strong cold front will move across the area from NW to SE. Rain
chances too small to mention...however low clouds and wind will be
the outlying issues. MVFR ceilings are likely around sunrise for a
few hours. Winds will become very gusty out of the NW behind the
front...with gusts between 30 and 40kts likely by afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  61  32  56 /   5   5   0   0
Atlanta         53  57  34  53 /  10  10   0   0
Blairsville     47  51  24  48 /  30  30   0   5
Cartersville    51  55  31  53 /  30  20   0   0
Columbus        53  63  35  58 /   5   5   0   0
Gainesville     52  55  32  53 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           48  66  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            50  55  30  54 /  30  20   5   5
Peachtree City  50  59  31  54 /  10   5   0   0
Vidalia         50  72  37  60 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...
Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Emanuel...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...
Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...
Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...White...Whitfield...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Butts...Carroll...
Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...
Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Haralson...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Lumpkin...
Madison...Meriwether...Morgan...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Putnam...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Taliaferro...
Towns...Troup...Union...Walker...Walton...White...Whitfield...
Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Kovacik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1250 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE SEE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING SMOKY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A HIGH FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.