Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Models in good agreement through the short term. The H5 short wave
over the lower Mississippi Valley will move rapidly east northeast
today...and by 18Z it will be moving into the Carolinas. The last
wave of precipitation was moving into the CWA from AL. This area
will move rapidly east and by 18Z most of the CWA will be precip
free with only a few showers lingering in the northeast mountains.
Rapid drying aloft should keep any showers/tstorms from developing
along the cold front as it moves across the CWA this afternoon. The
warm front to our south has not been progged very well by the models
and it still remains south of the CWA. At this time it is expected
to lift slowly northward to the southern CWA border...but not
expected to push much further north than this as the wedge is firmly
in place. However with the front in the vicinity of the southern
part of the CWA...will need to keep the risk of thunder through the
morning hours...although the risk of severe storms is diminishing.
having said that...will maintain the tornado watch until 5 AM but
there are no plans at this time to extend it. Dry and stable air
will spread over the CWA this afternoon through Wednesday.

17

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

No significant changes to the Long-Term Forecast trends with this
cycle. Moisture associated with the mid/late week system still looks
limited but chance POPs still appear appropriate, at least across the
north and west. GFS and ECMWF also not as extreme concerning the
cold air behind this system with the core of the coldest air
remaining north of the state. Still, this ushers in the coldest air
so far this season. Overall pattern remains fairly progressive and
upper-level flow quickly flattens and turns southwesterly with a
fairly quick moderation of the cold airmass expected going into the
weekend. Onset of the next round of precipitation still looks delayed
long enough for the airmass to warm sufficiently for a minimal risk
of any wintry precipitation across the far north with this weekend
system.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR cigs will hold until the cold front passes which should be
between 14 and 18z this morning. Cigs will become MVFR this
afternoon in the ATL/AHN areas...and VFR in the CSG/MCN areas.
Expect skies to become scattered in the AHN area this
evening...and ATL late tonight. Winds will be easterly...becoming
westerly after the frontal passage. Showers and isolated tsra will
be widespread ahead of the front with rapidly drying conditions
behind the front.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on tsra development this morning.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  45  62  42 / 100  10   5  10
Atlanta         63  45  60  43 / 100  10   5  10
Blairsville     54  39  58  38 / 100  10  10  20
Cartersville    61  42  58  40 / 100  10   5  20
Columbus        67  49  64  45 / 100  10   0   5
Gainesville     53  44  59  42 / 100  10   5  10
Macon           70  47  66  43 / 100  10   0   5
Rome            60  41  57  39 / 100  10  10  30
Peachtree City  65  44  61  41 / 100  10   0  10
Vidalia         76  52  68  48 / 100  10   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071115-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
615 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.