Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Late afternoon surface observations show a stationary front across
the coastal plains into the Rio Grande plains near Eagle Pass.
Otherwise, surface observations show a moist axis in place across
west central TX into the Hill Country. For the remainder of this
afternoon into the early evening, convection will be favored from
just north of the frontal boundary into the Hill Country along the
above mentioned moist axis. We can't completely rule out a strong
storm or two, but most activity will likely remain sub-severe.
Once we loose our daytime heating, this activity is expected to
decrease. The models do show some overnight/early morning activity
dropping southward from the panhandle/Texas south plains. However,
we are not confident this activity will make it into our region.
With this in mind, we'll go with a dry forecast for the late
evening and overnight hours. On Saturday, a weak outflow boundary
moving down from the north combined with a cold front moving down
from north Texas will bring additional rainfall chances to south
central Texas. The flow aloft will be rather weak, but again we
can't completely rule out a strong storm or two in the afternoon
and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
On Sunday, the flow aloft will begin to increase and slowly
transition from northwesterly to southwesterly as an upper level
trough drops across the western U.S. Meanwhile, the above
mentioned cold front may continue to drop into south central
Texas. Just how far south the front drops will largely depend on
the amount of convection along and behind the boundary. For now it
appears the front will not make much more progress than roughly
the Highway 71 corridor on Sunday. The medium range models both
show an increase in mid-level shortwave activity on Sunday. With
this and a front in the area, we have increased rain chances
slightly. The forecast continues to look interesting Sunday night
into Monday morning as we could see an MCS move across our region.
At this time, it appears areas along and west of I-10 stand a
better shot at seeing this activity. This definitely will be
monitored and for now we have increased rain chances slightly. For
the remainder of the forecast, the flow aloft should remain rather
active across Texas. This should continue to provide a good chance
for showers and thunderstorms across our region. The medium range
models disagree in showing a cold front moving into the region
Tuesday afternoon. For now, we'll need to monitor the weather on
Tuesday as this could provide another good chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  87  66  82  67 /  10  40  30  50  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  87  66  82  67 /  10  40  30  50  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  88  67  83  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
Burnet Muni Airport            67  84  63  78  65 /  10  40  30  50  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  88  69  84  68 /  10  50  40  50  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  85  63  79  66 /  10  40  30  50  50
Hondo Muni Airport             67  89  68  83  68 /  10  40  30  50  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  87  66  82  66 /  10  40  30  50  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  87  68  84  68 /  10  40  20  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  87  68  82  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
Stinson Muni Airport           69  89  69  84  69 /  10  30  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-140900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PERIODS OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A FEW AREAS COULD RECEIVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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