Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE A BREAK IN THE
STORM WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
VALE VERDE COUNTY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NE TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING
BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE FRONT.

IF ANY STORMS DO FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OR THE COASTAL PLAINS
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND
40 TO 50 KNOTS SHEAR ALLOW FOR THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE ELEVATED
WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEST TEXAS MODELS SHOW AN
850 MB FRONT PUSHING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL ACT AS YET ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO TEXAS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. MORNING LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE CLEAR AND CALM
WEATHER. A WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
LAGGING A BIT. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  60  71  54  76 /  20  40  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  61  71  52  75 /  20  40  40  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  62  72  53  76 /  20  40  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  55  68  50  74 /  10  40  40  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  59  71  55  80 /  40  50  40  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  70  51  74 /  20  40  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  61  72  52  79 /  20  40  40  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  61  72  53  75 /  20  40  40  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  63  73  55  75 /  30  50  50  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  72  55  77 /  20  40  40  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  63  74  57  78 /  20  40  50  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
412 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-020915-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
412 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TXZ183-012245-
VAL VERDE TX-
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 510 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AMISTAD VILLAGE...OR 12 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEL RIO...LAKE VIEW...VAL VERDE PARK...CIENEGAS TERRACE...AMISTAD
VILLAGE...BOX CANYON-AMISTAD...LAUGHLIN AFB...ROUGH CANYON REC AREA AND
DEVILS SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 10094 2938 10071 2934 10094 2937 10101
      2946 10106 2947 10115 2950 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 236DEG 17KT 2943 10109

CP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TXZ217-020030-
MAVERICK TX-
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MAVERICK COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 644 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
10 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUEMADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE PASS...QUEMADO...RADAR BASE...ROSITA NORTH...NORMANDY...PALOMA...ELM
CREEK...SECO MINES AND LAS QUINTAS FRONTERIZAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2870 10051 2874 10051 2876 10053 2880 10053
      2883 10055 2883 10058 2885 10057 2888 10060
      2889 10059 2890 10060 2891 10064 2892 10063
      2894 10065 2900 10065 2889 10028 2864 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 295DEG 19KT 2891 10070

CP