Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
HAVENT SEEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BESIDES A
FEW SHOWERS WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. WILL BEGIN THE SAN ANTONIO SITES
WITH VCSH TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. WITH LITTLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT ONCE
THE FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT FORCES AIR PARCELS UPWARDS. SOME OF
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING ON THIS SOLUTION BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON INITIALIZATION AND THINK ITS
SOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IS PLAUSIBLE. WILL MENTION
VCTS FROM 7Z-11 FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. MAY NEED TO UP THAT TO
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS LATER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOME VFR TOMORROW MORNING
AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM
NEAR SONORA BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. TRAILING BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN OZONA
TO DRYDEN LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ALBEIT PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY... WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS BECOME
LOCALLY BACKED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS. ONCE WE LOOSE PEAK HEATING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... A MORE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THIS SHOULD
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE MENTIONED
AREAS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO EASE ON
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  10  20  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  65  81  64 /  60  20  10  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  66  82  65 /  60  30  10  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  91  68  86  64 /  10  -   20  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  63  81  62 /  60  20  10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  67  84  66 /  40  10  10  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  64 /  60  30  10  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  69  83  67 /  80  40  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  67  82  65 /  50  20  10  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  69  83  67 /  50  20  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-300900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
357 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR AND EAST OF A MASON TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...MAINLY
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ209-292100-
FAYETTE TX-
314 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FAYETTEVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA GRANGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...ROUND TOP...HOLMAN...ELLINGER...REK HILL...WILLOW SPRINGS...
RUTERSVILLE...MULLINS PRAIRIE...WARRENTON AND WINEDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 9672 2976 9675 2985 9688 3015 9665
      3013 9665 3011 9663 3008 9663 3006 9662
      3004 9662 2996 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 217DEG 31KT 2986 9675

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
440 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ209-292230-
FAYETTE TX-
440 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

AT 440 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROUND TOP...OR 15 MILES EAST OF GIDDINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROUND TOP...CARMINE AND WINEDALE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3010 9680 3015 9678 3014 9676 3015 9671
      3017 9669 3015 9668 3015 9665 3013 9665
      3011 9663 3008 9663 3006 9662 3002 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 204DEG 39KT 3013 9667

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             1 S QUEMADO             28.94N 100.63W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       MAVERICK           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600312

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ171-292345-
LLANO TX-
553 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CASTELL...OR 11 MILES WEST OF LLANO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LLANO...BABY HEAD AND VALLEY SPRING.

LAT...LON 3062 9881 3071 9897 3076 9897 3092 9886
      3092 9854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 212DEG 29KT 3073 9886

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ171-300015-
LLANO TX-
641 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LLANO COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 641 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LONE GROVE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF LLANO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCHANAN DAM...LONE GROVE...TOW AND BLUFFTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 9845 3089 9845 3088 9846 3087 9843
      3082 9842 3077 9864 3092 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 226DEG 19KT 3085 9859

CP