Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF KDRT TO KJCT TO KACT MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 40 TO 50 KTS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IT WILL CROSS
THE I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z AND EXIT EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY 13Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
LINE WITH IFR VSBYS IN TSRA AS IT PASSES. VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE LINE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING. SLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
SHIFT TO W TO NW 5 TO 12 KTS BEHIND THE LINE. SLY WINDS RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SHOWS CAPPING HOLDING ON AS EXPECTED PER
THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE TRENDS. LAPS SOUNDINGS HAVE THIS FEATURE
MUCH WEAKER...SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THAT BEING SAID...LAPS
IS SHOWING PRETTY STRONG CAPPING CONTINUING OVER THE I35
CORRIDOR...WHICH MEANS IT IS PROBABLY EVEN STRONGER THAN
ADVERTISED THERE AS WELL. SATELLITE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN CLOUD
STREETS IN PLACE EVERYWHERE BUT THE PLATEAU...INDICATING A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE.

CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR I-10 NORTH OF OZONA...AND EVEN FARTHER
NORTH...A LINE OF STORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS QUICKLY.
INDICATIONS ARE THE LINE WILL FILL IN BETWEEN I-10 AND COLEMAN AND
BEGIN TO PUSH MORE SOUTHEAST AS OUTFLOW DOMINATES AND DRIVES THE
TRANSLATION OF THE LINE. WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS LIKELY AS CIN INCREASES INTO THE
NIGHT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE OVERNIGHT AS
THE LINE APPROACHES THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PLATEAU. AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CATCHES UP TO THE DRY LINE...THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
THROUGH THE CWA...ARRIVING AT THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE 1-3AM TIME
FRAME.

WITH THE AMPLE INSTABILITY REMAINING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FILTERING IN...THE LINE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OF
UP TO 2 INCHES...BUT THE WIND THREAT WILL BECOME THE MORE
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  87  71  85  68 /   0  30  30  50  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  86  71  85  69 /  -   30  30  50  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  87  72  86  69 /  -   30  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  85  69  82  65 /   0  20  30  70  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  91  72  90  65 /   0  10  30  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  86  70  83  67 /   0  20  30  60  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  89  72  87  70 /   0  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  86  71  85  68 /  -   30  30  50  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  72  85  72 /  -   30  30  50  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  72  86  70 /   0  30  30  50  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  88  73  88  72 /  -   30  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-280330-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1029 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH 5AM. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTION OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LINE OF STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LINE
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

ALLEN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

TXZ173-192-194-270815-
WILLIAMSON TX-TRAVIS TX-LEE TX-
230 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TRAVIS...EASTERN
WILLIAMSON AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 230 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BARTLETT TO WINDEMERE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROUND ROCK...PFLUGERVILLE...TAYLOR...GRANGER...HUTTO...BARTLETT...THRALL...
WEIR...GRANGER DAM...COUPLAND...SANDOVAL...LANEPORT...RICES CROSSING...
HARE...NOACK...BEYARSVILLE...HOXIE...JONAH...SCHWERTNER AND WATERLOO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3074 9727 3046 9715 3035 9724 3042 9736
      3041 9738 3040 9738 3049 9766 3083 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 302DEG 28KT 3077 9742 3046 9766

CP