Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

April 25, 2016Atascosa County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this special weather statement at Apr 25, 2016, 5:34 PM CDT for Atascosa County, Texas. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 25, 2016, 5:34 PM CDT (22:34 UTC)
Expired: Apr 25, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

County Atascosa County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1837 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -80 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 521 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 145 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 25, 3:24 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 25, 3:24 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CAP HAS ERODED PER
SPC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS SOUTH
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE WINTER GARDEN AREA.
THE CAP MAY FURTHER ERODE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY THROUGH
THE LATER AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED MOVING
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT 21Z-03Z. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING
CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR
WHERE THE CAP HAS ERODED. IT DOES APPEAR CU FIELD IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
SHOULD CONVECTION INITIALIZE...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG PER SPC ANALYSIS.
HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

CAP WILL RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BENEATH IT. THE CAP SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS
THE STRONGER FORCING APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CWA AND NORTH TEXAS
THE CAP SHOULD ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS 21Z-00Z TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELD STRONG CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
4500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME...WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40 KT. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
VALUES REMAIN TO NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE CAP ERODES THROUGH THE EVENING. TEXAS
TECH 4 KM WRF AND ARW MORE BULLISH WITH UNZIPPING CONVECTION AS
FAR SOUTH AS SAN ANTONIO 03Z-09Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS THE DISTURBANCE PASS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR IS DRAGGED EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA WITH A DRY WARM AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
AND DEVELOPS QPF ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE DRIER. LOW 20 POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY.

STILL APPEARS AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTING
INTO THE WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DETAILS AND TIMING
ARE STILL MUDDY...BUT APPEARS HIGH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  85  66  88  64 /  20  30  60  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  85  67  87  62 /  20  20  60  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  85  67  88  63 /  20  20  50  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  83  61  87  61 /  20  30  60  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  91  62  89  63 /  -   10  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  84  65  86  62 /  20  30  60  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  88  63  90  61 /  10  20  30  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  85  66  86  63 /  20  20  60  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  86  70  86  68 /  20  10  50  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  86  67  88  64 /  20  20  40  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  88  68  89  64 /  10  20  40  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 25, 2:54 PM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-262000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
254 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM LLANO TO GEORGETOWN AND SOUTHWESTWARD
TO EAGLE PASS AND CARRIZO SPRINGS. THIS AREA INCLUDES AUSTIN AND
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF SAN ANTONIO. THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A
WEAK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...LATE TUESDAY...
AND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 25, 4:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
430 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TXZ219-252200-
FRIO TX-
430 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRIO COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTH OF GOLDFINCH...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDFINCH.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2875 9903 2894 9881 2866 9880 2865 9883
      2865 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 234DEG 16KT 2873 9891

HAMPSHIRE

Special weather statement, Apr 25, 5:34 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TXZ220-252300-
ATASCOSA TX-
534 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 533 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF BIGFOOT...OR 9 MILES WEST OF POTEET...MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POTEET...ROSSVILLE...KYOTE...IUKA...ESPEY AND AMPHION.

LAT...LON 2899 9881 2912 9880 2923 9874 2913 9846
      2892 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 199DEG 27KT 2904 9874

HAMPSHIRE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 25, 4:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Frio	30 min
Apr 25, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Atascosa, Frio	30 min
Apr 25, 5:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Atascosa, Bexar	42 min
Apr 25, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bexar	50 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.