Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR CHANNEL OVER VAL VERDE
COUNTY IS CREATING SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE
AND NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THAT REGION WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THAT CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

MOST HIRES AND MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND PART OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EXIT THE AREA
TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS EVENING...700 MB WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ENDING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAR
AGREEMENT ON THROUGH THE EXTEND FORECAST PERIOD AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION CREATES A BIT MORE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THAN THE ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT AND WITH ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY
WEATHER FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE MONITOR
FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  45  72  47  77 /  30  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  42  72  41  76 /  30  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  44  72  43  77 /  30  10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  41  70  44  75 /  30  20   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  45  72  48  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  41  71  42  76 /  40  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  41  72  42  76 /  30  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  44  71  43  75 /  30  10   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  45  71  44  75 /  30  20   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  72  45  76 /  30  10   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  47  73  46  77 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
435 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-021000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
435 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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