Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN A FEW HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z. TSRA WILL LOWER VIS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH FROM 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

DRT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR TSRA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT HOUR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN ANY TSRA. OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITION
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRT
EARLIER...BUT WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/

UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN
COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ISOLATED STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM HAZARDS COULD BE DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH. ANOTHER FORECAST ALTERATION
WAS TO PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS ENTERING THE HILL
COUNTRY NEAR 9-10PM AND HAVE REDUCED CHANCES NOW UNTIL THAT TIME.
MINOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT CORRECTIONS WERE ALSO MADE BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW ON THE POSSIBLE
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES AGITATED
CUMULUS ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WHERE SOME HAVE ALREADY BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WHERE LESS
CAPPING AND BETTER INSTABILITY COEXIST. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THE ENVIRONMENT IS LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS STRONGER SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER CAPPING ARE IN PLACE. THIS CAPPING PLUS LIMITED MOISTURE
DEPTH OVER FAR NW HILL COUNTRY COULD LIMIT THE POTENCY OF THE
STORMS INITIALLY. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND COOLING ERODE THE CAP
TO BETTER SUPPORT FREE CONVECTION.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE
VALUES ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE STEEP LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM EXIST AND BISECT THE AREA OF LOWER LFC AND LCL
HEIGHTS. INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS BURNET SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KERR/BANDERA IN THE 9-11PM RANGE
AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER
LFC/LCL HEIGHTS. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM MIDNIGHT TO 2-3AM AND REACH THE
COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT VERY ISOLATED POCKETS COULD
REACH AN INCH AN A HALF EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
PWATS ARE GREATER. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS WILL BE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
OF AN INCH. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BACK SOUTHWEST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND AS OF 19Z IS
STILL LOCATED IN CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY NEAR K6R6.

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...AN INCREASE IN UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT AND WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
GRAPHICS. SHOULD ANY SEVERE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS SREF PLUMES SUGGEST
1/10" - 1/4" FOR MOST AREAS. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
DRY...NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DECREASING WINDS...DRY AND AND CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S HILL COUNTRY AND FAVORED
COOL SPOTS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND AIDS IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...SO PREFER TO KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE KNOCKED DOWN CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS TRANSITION
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
NOW... WE/LL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND
AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE GOING MUCH HIGHER WITH
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  44  74  51  79 /  10   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  40  74  47  79 /  10   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  43  74  49  79 /  10   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  43  73  50  78 /  -    0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  49  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  42  73  49  78 /  10   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  42  75  49  80 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  42  73  49  78 /  10   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  44  74  50  79 /  10   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  44  74  50  80 /  -    0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  45  76  51  81 /  10   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY...I-35 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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