Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KAUS AND WILL ONLY MENTION
VCTS THERE. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO
SITES AND DEL RIO SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH AND CONVECTION
CHANCES DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

SHORT-RANGE MODEL TRENDS ACCELERATED THE COLD FRONT SPEED EARLIER
TODAY...ONLY TO REACT TO DAYTIME MIXING/PRE-FRONTAL GRAVITY WAVE AND
SLOW IT DOWN AGAIN IN MORE RECENT RUNS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
MIGRATION WESTWARD OF THE EXPECTED STORM INITIATION AND THREAT
FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY/HIGHER CAPES. AS
SUCH THE SPC IS MONITORING OUR HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR A POSSIBLE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A FEW ELEVATED
CELLS WERE FORMING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AT THE TIME OF THE AFD
ISSUANCE.

POPS WERE SHAVED BACK SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL TX
COUNTIES TONIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT THE SLIGHTLY DELAYED FROPA
OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY
LATE THIS EVENING/LATE TONIGHT. BEST QPF AND ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS COUNTIES...AND THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HI-RES RUNS DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
TRIGGERED BY THE SERANIAS DEL BURROS THAT COLLIDE WITH THE FRONT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN PRIMARY THREATS...AND THE
BETTER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MAINLY BOUNDARY-DEPENDENT.

RAIN CHANCES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD TOWARD THE END OF TONIGHT...AND
CONSERVATIVE POPS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING AS JUST A FEW
SHOWERS OVER SRN/SE COUNTIES. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY
MIDDAY A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN AND
KEEP GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST AIR TEMPS SINCE
AROUND MAR 4TH. NO FREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AN
ISOLATED FREEZE IN PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY AND STABLE AIR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
DAYTIME CAA LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND PERSIST TO OPEN UP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...MORNING
CLOUDINESS RETURNS AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS IN POSITION TO
BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH HAS TRENDED FASTER AND MORE POLAR IN
NATURE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. THIS TREND USUALLY
LEADS TO WEAKER STORM SYSTEMS AND NOT MUCH RAIN. POPS WERE
SHIFTED FORWARD BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OVER PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
STABLE AND POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              48  61  42  65  42 /  50  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  48  62  37  64  35 /  50  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     49  63  41  66  38 /  60  10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            44  60  39  61  37 /  40  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  62  45  66  44 /  50  10   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  60  38  62  36 /  40  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             48  64  40  67  38 /  60  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        49  62  40  64  39 /  50  10   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  61  43  65  39 /  50  20   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  63  42  66  41 /  60  10   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  64  44  67  42 /  60  20   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
438 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
438 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS
THEY APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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