Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. AHEAD OF THIS LINE CIGS HAVE
DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP CIGS TO IFR AND MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15G25 KTS AND THEN TO 25G35 KTS BY
AROUND 18Z. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING LATE EVENING TUESDAY.

AT DRT CIGS ARE MVFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 10Z AND INCREASE
BY 18Z. WINDS OF 25G35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING DECREASING BY 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/

UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TO
THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FIRST SET OF STRONG STORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT NOT NIL. SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...A LINE OF STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A BOWING LINE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM...BETWEEN 5
AND 6 AM ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT AND AROUND NOON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4+
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.

THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.

THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  64  41  64  39 / 100  70  10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  66  42  65  35 / 100  70  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  70  43  66  36 / 100  50  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  59  40  62  36 / 100  60  10   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  70  42  67  36 /  80   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  60  41  63  36 / 100  70  10   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  71  41  67  32 / 100  20   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  67  43  65  36 / 100  60  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  69  45  64  37 /  90  70  10   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  71  44  66  36 / 100  40   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  73  44  68  36 /  90  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-231245-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1042 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 4
AM TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A
PING PONG BALL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT
NOT ZERO...

THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY WITH WINDS OF 25-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS STORMS IMPACT THE
AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

TXZ204-205-219-220-230730-
ATASCOSA TX-FRIO TX-BEXAR TX-MEDINA TX-
1227 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR...NORTHEASTERN
FRIO...NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA AND SOUTHERN MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 130
AM CST...

AT 1226 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER HONDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...HONDO...DEVINE...POTEET...CASTROVILLE...MOORE...KIRBY...LYTLE...
SOMERSET...NATALIA...LACOSTE...D'HANIS...PEARSON...BADER...NOONAN...LACKLAND
AFB...QUIHI...BIGFOOT...SEA WORLD AND DUNLAY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2926 9936 2951 9928 2946 9838 2893 9860
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 290DEG 38KT 2936 9917

CP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

TXZ189>192-205>208-230745-
GUADALUPE TX-COMAL TX-CALDWELL TX-TRAVIS TX-BEXAR TX-BLANCO TX-
KENDALL TX-HAYS TX-
1251 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BEXAR...WESTERN
CALDWELL...COMAL...SOUTHWESTERN TRAVIS...BLANCO...EASTERN KENDALL...
GUADALUPE AND HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CST...

AT 1251 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BLOWOUT TO NEAR ROCKY
CREEK TO BLANCO TO SPRING BRANCH TO NEAR THE DOMINION...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN MARCOS...SEGUIN...UNIVERSAL
CITY...LOCKHART...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...BLANCO...ROUND MOUNTAIN...
TANGLEWOOD FOREST...CANYON LAKE DAM...SCHERTZ...KYLE...CIBOLO...LIVE OAK...
LAKEWAY...BUDA AND LAGO VISTA.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3047 9830 3043 9813 3047 9809 3046 9783
      2987 9767 2948 9784 2955 9861 3048 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0651Z 270DEG 35KT 3039 9855 3024 9847 3011 9843 2986
9842 2964 9856

CP

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