Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

782 
WWUS54 KEWX 130330
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

TXC029-130338-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160413T0345Z/
BEXAR TX-
1030 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2947 9777 2935 9786 2933 9784 2922 9789
      2925 9817 2944 9814 2946 9812 2948 9812
      2948 9813 2964 9811 2963 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 277DEG 36KT 2944 9796 

$$

TXC187-493-130345-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160413T0345Z/
GUADALUPE TX-WILSON TX-
1030 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 1028 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
NEW BERLIN...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF SEGUIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. 

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEGUIN...STOCKDALE...LA VERNIA...NEW BERLIN...MCQUEENEY...SUTHERLAND
SPRINGS...KINGSBURY...ZUEHL...ZIPP AND NOLTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2947 9777 2935 9786 2933 9784 2922 9789
      2925 9817 2944 9814 2946 9812 2948 9812
      2948 9813 2964 9811 2963 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 277DEG 36KT 2944 9796 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
741 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
00Z KDRT SOUNDING IS SHOWING AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH AROUND 7 DEG C LAPSE RATES UP TO 3KM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AND BEGIN SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO CONVECTION ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS THE WEST. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS 0-3 KM HELICITY OF
240 M2/S2...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 60 KTS AND PWAT VALUES
OF OVER 1.5 INCHES. WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPANNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SPC MESOANALYSIS CHARACTERIZES MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SUB 1000M
LCLS...AND SUB 500M ON THE PLATEAU. THIS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH
SHEAR AND HEALTHY INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUES TO LEAVE
TORNADIC POTENTIAL IN THE DISCUSSION. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS SHOW
REALLY NO SOUTHERN COMPONENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

IN SHORT...WHILE ALL SEVERE THREATS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND CONCERN WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE...AND IF SO...ALONG OR NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS LOWER TO ALL IFR THIS EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. PATCHY LIFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEST TIMING AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS SHRA/TSRA AT KDRT
00Z-04Z AND KAUS/KSAT/KSSF 03Z-07Z. OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH VCSH
THRU 12Z FOR THE TAF SITES. COULD BE SOME SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW PROBS AND
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON WITH LOW
CLOUDS BECOMING SCT. E TO NE WINDS 6 TO 14 KTS PREVAIL WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 19Z. ELSEWHERE...
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY DECREASED...WITH THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. LATE AFTERNOON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR KCZT
TO K66R.

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION. SPC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT OUTLOOK. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SURFACE-BASED. WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO NEAR THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD ALSO DECREASE. THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION...WE/LL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AND WE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED AS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
WEIGH HEAVILY ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WHILE SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A GREATER CONCERN. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  74  57  78  58 /  80  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  73  56  78  56 /  80  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  75  57  79  58 /  80  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  71  55  76  57 /  80  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  81  60  83  63 /  80  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  71  55  76  57 /  80  30  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  78  56  80  60 /  80  30  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  73  56  77  57 /  80  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  74  58  78  58 /  80  50  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  76  57  79  60 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  77  58  80  60 /  70  40  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
750 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-140100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
750 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STRONGER CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MORE FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
933 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     HAIL             2 NW LEON VALLEY        29.52N  98.64W
04/12/2016  M2.00 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

            2 INCH HAIL MEASURED NEAR BANDERA RD AND GUILBEAU RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600157

MCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             HELOTES                 29.57N  98.69W
04/12/2016  M3.00 INCH       BEXAR              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE INCH SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE CITY OF HELOTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600158

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
936 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

TXZ189>192-206-130330-
COMAL TX-TRAVIS TX-BLANCO TX-KENDALL TX-HAYS TX-
936 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMAL...SOUTHWESTERN TRAVIS...
CENTRAL BLANCO...EASTERN KENDALL AND HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT...

AT 935 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JOHNSON CITY TO NEAR TWIN
SISTERS TO NEAR BERGHEIM...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN MARCOS...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...
BLANCO...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...CANYON LAKE DAM...KYLE...LAKEWAY...BUDA...
CANYON LAKE...BULVERDE...BEE CAVE...WEST LAKE HILLS...THE HILLS...JOHNSON
CITY...WOODCREEK...ROLLINGWOOD AND UHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3042 9775 2997 9778 2993 9782 2988 9789
      2986 9790 2972 9804 2967 9811 2980 9860
      3026 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 257DEG 32KT 3027 9838 2996 9839 2981 9853

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             2 SW SHAVANO PARK       29.56N  98.59W
04/12/2016  E1.00 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL NEAR DE ZAVALA AND VANCE JACKSON
            INTERSECTION

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600159

MCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
944 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     HAIL             2 NW HOLLYWOOD PARK     29.62N  98.51W
04/12/2016  M3.50 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT OF 3.5 INCH HAIL MEASURED AT BANDERA RD
            AND HUEBNER ROAD NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600160

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             1 S ALAMO HEIGHTS       29.47N  98.47W
04/12/2016  M3.00 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

            THREE INCH DIAMETER HAIL REPORTED ON THE CAMPUS OF THE
            UNIVERSITY OF THE INCARNATE WORD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600161

TB3