Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
743 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection chances will be the main concern across the region
through the remainder of this evening. Based on radar trends, we
have gone with TEMPO groups for TSRA at KAUS and KDRT for the next
couple of hours. We will also include TEMPO groups for SAT/SSF
between 06Z-10Z as activity is expected to move in from the west.
Additional rainfall chances appear in the offing for our I-35
sites late tomorrow afternoon and we'll mention PROB30 groups to
cover.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

UPDATE...
In coordination with SPC, we have issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch along and northwest of a Junction to Uvalde to Del Rio line.
Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop over the Serranias
del Burro mountains to southwestern Texas. Strong instability and
shear are noted across our area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for areas along and east of a
Burnet to Boerne to San Antonio to Karnes City line for this
afternoon through late tonight. A surface boundary from morning
rains over Central Texas is slowly drifting south along the I-35
corridor and provided lift to generate showers and thunderstorms.
PWS have risen to near 2 inches across the Hill Country and South
Central Texas tapering to near 1.5 inches along the Rio Grande.
Due to earlier clearing skies allowing convective temperatures to
be reached, showers and thunderstorms have developed out west from
the Serranias del Burro of Mexico across the Big Bend into
southwestern Texas. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue
across the eastern areas with locally heavy rains causing some
flooding this afternoon into evening. Showers and thunderstorms
out west will organize and move east across our area this evening
into the overnight hours. This will cause another round of locally
heavy rains. With the rains ongoing in the east adding to the
saturated soils...the threat for flooding will continue into the
overnight hours especially across eastern areas. An upper level
trough will move northeast across the plains states on Wednesday
forcing a dryline into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains
on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and east
of the dryline. More locally heavy rains are possible with PWS
near 1.8 inches east of I-35. CAPEs of 2000 to 4000 j/kg and 0-6
km shear will allow for strong to severe storms this afternoon
through Friday evening.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A series of upper level impulses will move across the southern
tier of states. A moist and unstable airmass lingers over our area
due to a persistent southeasterly lower flow off the Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday through Thursday. Similar to the short term, a
few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains with flooding
are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  85  73  90  73 /  60  60  40  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  85  72  89  72 /  60  60  40  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  87  72  88  73 /  50  60  30  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  85  71  88  71 /  60  60  30  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  95  71  90  73 /  60  10  10  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  84  72  89  71 /  60  60  40  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  91  73  90  73 /  60  30  20  30  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  86  72  88  72 /  50  60  30  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  85  75  88  73 /  50  70  40  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  87  74  88  73 /  60  40  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           75  90  75  90  75 /  60  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT Friday for the following counties:
Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...
Fayette...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Lavaca...
Lee...Travis...Williamson...Wilson.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-272245-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
540 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE ALL AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
GIDDINGS TO SEGUIN TO DILLEY LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND EAST OF A BURNET TO BOERNE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY LINE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ALONG AND
EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS INTACT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
905 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ184>187-270245-
BANDERA TX-REAL TX-EDWARDS TX-KERR TX-
905 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KERR...NORTHEASTERN
EDWARDS...NORTHWESTERN BANDERA AND NORTHERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

AT 904 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES EAST OF ROCKSPRINGS TO NEAR VANCE.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...VANCE...MOUNTAIN HOME...PRADE RANCH...
I-10 NEAR THE KIMBLE-KERR COUNTY LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND
US 290 AND DEVILS SINKHOLE STATE NATURAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2989 9930 2979 10004 3012 10011 3029 9963
      3029 9938
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 254DEG 36KT 3008 10002 2988 9998

AAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ192-193-270300-
BASTROP TX-TRAVIS TX-
921 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BASTROP AND
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 921 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MUSTANG RIDGE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...MUSTANG RIDGE...ONION CREEK...
WYLDWOOD...SAN LEANNA...WEBBERVILLE...CREEDMOOR...DEL VALLE...MAHA AND
PILOT KNOB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9758 3016 9741 3003 9761 3007 9766
      3002 9771 3011 9783 3013 9784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 228DEG 18KT 3010 9773

LJH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ209-270300-
FAYETTE TX-
930 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 929 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LA GRANGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA GRANGE...FAYETTEVILLE...ROUND TOP...CARMINE...NECHANITZ...WALHALLA...
WARRENTON...WINEDALE...REK HILL...WALDECK...WILLOW SPRINGS...RUTERSVILLE...
MULLINS PRAIRIE AND RABBS PRAIRIE.

LAT...LON 2986 9665 2982 9689 2998 9696 3016 9669
      3015 9668 3015 9665 3013 9665 3011 9663
      3008 9663 3006 9662 3004 9662 2996 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 247DEG 15KT 2992 9685

LJH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
946 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ191>193-208-270330-
BASTROP TX-CALDWELL TX-TRAVIS TX-HAYS TX-
946 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BASTROP...NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS AND EAST CENTRAL HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

AT 946 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BUDA...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF TANGLEWOOD FOREST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...ELGIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...KYLE...BUDA...UHLAND...MUSTANG
RIDGE...NIEDERWALD...CEDAR CREEK...WYLDWOOD...CAMP SWIFT...ONION CREEK...
MOUNTAIN CITY...SAN LEANNA...WEBBERVILLE...HAYS...CREEDMOOR...DEL VALLE...
MANCHACA AND MAHA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2994 9782 3009 9793 3041 9735 3034 9720
      3026 9709 3026 9710
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 237DEG 16KT 3005 9782

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HAIL             4 ESE KERR WILDLIFE MGM 30.06N  99.44W
05/26/2016  E1.50 INCH       KERR               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF HAIL COVERING THE YARD...SOME HAIL AS BIG AS
            PING PONG BALLS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600438

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W PILOT KNOB          30.16N  97.73W
05/26/2016                   TRAVIS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS BEGINNING TO CLOSE IN SOUTH AUSTIN
            DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAYS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600439