River Flood Warning 107, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

974 
WGUS84 KEWX 280102
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
802 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Pecos River At Pandale Crossing Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-280132-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0107.000000T0000Z-160628T1352Z/
/PDAT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
802 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Pecos River At Pandale Crossing.
* At  7:15 PM Monday the stage was 1.4 feet (0.4 meters).
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet (2.1 meters).
* Forecast...The river level is no longer expected to rise above action
  stage as previously forecast. The river level will rise slightly and is expected
  to crest below flood stage at 2.9 feet (0.9 meters) Thursday morning.
  This is the last forecast for this event.


&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Pandale Crossing    5    7    1.4   Mon 07 PM   1.8   2.4   2.9   2.7   2.5


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Pandale Crossing    2    2    0.4   Mon 07 PM   0.5   0.7   0.9   0.8   0.8


&&

LAT...LON 3023 10175 3028 10169 3012 10149 2984 10137
      2981 10150 3007 10157       

$$

TXC465-280132-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0106.000000T0000Z-160629T0916Z/
/JNXT2.1.ER.160627T1313Z.160627T1930Z.160627T2315Z.UU/
802 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet (2.4 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at  6:15 PM Monday.
* Forecast...The river level is now below flood stage and will continue to fall
  to 6.3 feet (1.9 meters) by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Minor lowland flooding closes low 
  crossings on Highway 163..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Cauthorn Ranch N    3    8    7.8   Mon 07 PM   7.0   6.3   6.0   5.7   5.5


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Cauthorn Ranch N    1    2    2.4   Mon 07 PM   2.1   1.9   1.8   1.7   1.7


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

sbs

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1236 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals for much of the forecast
period. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
far northwest and southeast parts of the area with no impact to
area airports. A weak cold front is forecast to push across the
area on Tuesday. This will bring chances of showers and storms
mainly across the I-35 airports around noon through the evening.
Some of the storms could produce localized heavy downpours and
reduce vsbys to MVFR. Wind will shift to the northeast in the
afternoon and east for the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated to increase rain chances across
western and northern portions of Val Verde county. Convection
continues across portions of the Rio Grande plains and southern
Edwards Plateau this morning. An upper low over west Texas and
deep moisture (PWAT ~ 2" at DRT) are responsible for the
continued rainfall. The upper low is forecast to move westward
through the day. However, radar trends suggest rain will continue
this morning, especially over western Val Verde county.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
TSRA complex has remained north of the KDRT terminal and does not
appear to be a threat to impact it this morning. Could see some
isolated shower development this morning and afternoon but not
high confidence in impacts to the terminal.

KSAT/KSSF will begin the period IFR before recovering back to VFR
by mid morning. Then VFR will prevail the remainder of the period.

KAUS should develop some MVFR BR briefly this morning and tomorrow
morning but otherwise should stay VFR throughout as well.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
TUTT low centered over the lower Pecos Valley has generated heavy
rainfall over northern Val Verde County over the last few hours
with radar estimates showing up to 6.4 inches. The low is forecast
to slowly weaken today as it drifts to the southwest and then
dissipate over the Big Bend later tonight into early Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over Val Verde and parts
of nearby counties this morning. Subtropical Ridge centers over
the Four Corners and the Arklatex regions bridge together today
with subsidence taking hold over most of South Central Texas. The
activity out west will decrease in coverage later this morning
into the afternoon. Elsewhere, only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly along the seabreeze near the
Coastal Plains this afternoon. The Arklatex center weakens tonight
allowing a northerly flow aloft to bring a weak front into Central
Texas on Tuesday. Subsidence weakens and upward forcing by the
front is expected to generate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The front stalls and slowly dissipates across South Central Texas
Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Also, some outflow boundaries may
linger across our area. These features will allow for isolated
showers and thunderstorms, except scattered near the Coastal
Plains where the seabreeze may bring more coverage. On Thursday,
the Subtropical Ridge becomes centered over Central Texas and
meanders around Central and Eastern Texas through next weekend.
Subsidence takes hold and persists through Sunday. Forecast is
rain free Thursday through Sunday. However, cannot rule out a
shower or two near the Coastal Plains along the seabreeze in the
afternoon. Temperatures will slowly warm to slightly above normal
going into the Independence Day weekend with heat indices possibly
becoming elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  74  95  74 /  -   40  20  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  95  73  94  73 /  -   40  20  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  95  73  94  73 /  -   30  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  73  93  73 /  -   40  20  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  97  75  97  77 /  -   10  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  73  94  74 /  10  40  20  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             72  95  73  94  74 /  -   20  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  73  93  73 /  -   40  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  74  93  74 /  -   50  30  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  75  94  75 /  -   20  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  96  76  96  76 /  -   20  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
454 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
454 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TB3