Heat Advisory 8, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Atascosa County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Medina County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX

846 
WWUS74 KEWX 122101
NPWEWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
401 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

TXZ173-191>194-202>208-217-218-228-130100-
/O.EXA.KEWX.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160813T0100Z/
WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...EAGLE PASS...
CRYSTAL CITY...CARRIZO SPRINGS
401 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* TEMPERATURE...100 TO 105 WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 110
  DEGREES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

* IMPACTS...PROLONGED ACTIVITY OUTDOORS ESPECIALLY IN DIRECT 
  SUNLIGHT COULD LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESSES SUCH AS HEAT EXHAUSTION 
  AND HEAT STROKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS...IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

&&

$$

TXZ209-219>225-130100-
/O.CON.KEWX.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160813T0100Z/
FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...
FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETSVILLE
401 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...102 TO 106 WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 112
  DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...PROLONGED ACTIVITY OUTDOORS ESPECIALLY IN DIRECT 
  SUNLIGHT COULD LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESSES SUCH AS HEAT EXHAUSTION 
  AND HEAT STROKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS...IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

&&

$$

669 
WWUS74 KEWX 130125
NPWEWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
825 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

TXZ173-191>194-202>209-217>225-228-130230-
/O.EXP.KEWX.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160813T0100Z/
WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...
EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
825 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WE ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. TEMPERATURES HAVE MAINLY
DROPPED BELOW 100 AND HEAT INDICES BELOW 105.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
411 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Today should be the last day of a persistent dry and hot pattern
as of late. While heat indices won't be quite as much of a factor
today due to lower surface dewpoints, the drier air will allow for
highs today to reach the triple digits across the majority of the
area and heat advisory level Max T (105) to be possible along our
southern periphery with CRP. Locations generally south of the I-10
corridor east of San Antonio and including Atascosa and Frio
counties will continue with one last heat advisory today before a
changing pattern ensues over the weekend.

The drier conditions will bring afternoon RH values below 30
percent for the majority of the CWA which will create elevated
fire weather conditions. Luckily winds are progged to remain light
under the relaxed PGF regime of the high pressure we are currently
under so we should avoid any critical fire weather concerns today.

Tonight, hi-res models are producing convection across the west-
central part of the state associated with the southward moving
frontal boundary indicated for the last few days in mid-range
models. While not all of the hi-res models show development in our
CWA, latest HRRR and ARW runs bring at least isolated activity to
our northern borders with SJT this evening. Went ahead and
included slight chance PoPs for tonight and overnight to account
for this isolated potential as well as the possibility for
convection to push far enough south to impact the northern CWA.

Overnight, the southward moving frontal boundary collides with a
moisture boundary from the gulf effectively stalling each along a
line from Del Rio to Kerrville and through Georgetown. This will
be the primary focus for QPF generation Saturday as deep layer
moisture continues to advect westward from the gulf low out east.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
A long term pattern of high moisture content and weak but adequate
lifting for storm development will be the story line for the next
7 days. An opportunity for locally heavy rainfall, perhaps 1-2
inches per hour in some of the heavier cells will exist mainly
Sunday afternoon and evening...possibly lasting through Monday as
well...due to PWAT values well over 2 inches and a combination of
weak upper lifting, modest instability, low level jet influences,
and surface forcing due to the stalled boundary.

While GFS and Euro solutions indicate QPF bullseyes in proximity
to the boundary from Del Rio to Austin, the confidence in any one
of these locations is quite low. While acknowledging that there
certainly exists some potential for locally heavy rainfall Sunday
and Monday, too many unpredictable variables will play into where
they develop, namely outflow boundary generation/interaction. For
now, rainfall totals for the 48 hour time frame from Sunday
morning to Tuesday morning are expected to be between 1-2 inches,
but with possibly up to 4 inches in localized spots.

As we move later into the week, a slow but gradual decrease in
deep layer moisture will cause PoP chances to diminish slightly
each day but remain in the chance category through Friday. The
high moisture content will likely result in mostly cloudy skies
and much lower high temperatures than we have been experiencing
with the dry regime lately, with 80s on the Plateau and low 90s
elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             103  79  99  77  91 /  -   20  50  60  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 101  77  99  76  91 /  -   10  40  50  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport    102  77 100  76  92 /  -   -   40  50  60
Burnet Muni Airport           102  77  97  75  90 /  20  20  50  60  60
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  80 100  78  95 /  10  20  40  50  60
Georgetown Muni Airport       102  79  97  76  90 /  10  20  50  60  60
Hondo Muni Airport            103  77  99  77  94 /   0  10  40  40  50
San Marcos Muni Airport       102  77  98  76  91 /  -   10  40  50  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional  102  78  98  78  90 /   0  -   40  50  60
San Antonio Intl Airport      102  79  98  78  93 /  -   -   40  40  50
Stinson Muni Airport          103  78 100  78  95 /   0   0  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for
the following counties: Atascosa...De Witt...Fayette...Frio...
Gonzales...Karnes...Lavaca...Wilson.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
805 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-130115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
805 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELEVATED HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.