Areal Flood Advisory 39, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  20  10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  20  20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  61  78  58  69 /  20  10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  62  79  60  70 /  20  10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  20  10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  30  10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  40  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  20  10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-010915-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 5 AM THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS THIS MORNING AND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

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