Special Weather Statement, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
253 AM MDT MON OCT 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunday's moisture and thunderstorms have eased out of the region
headed east with drier and more stable air moving in from the west
today. This means a dry and mild Columbus Day today. The region
will remain dry through the week with temperatures climbing back
to above normal with afternoon highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal
each day. Thursday a backdoor cool front will push in from the
east as a disturbance tracks in from the west. This may bring
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms to areas east of the
Rio Grande. The moisture and precipitation chances quickly exit
Friday with dry and mild conditions returning for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air is quickly moving in from the west as yesterday's
moisture and storms exit to the east. We are clearly on the back
side of a passing short-wave trough with broad and flat ridging
moving in from the west. Moisture levels will be on the decline
with both PW's and dewpoints dropping enough to return the
environment to a stable condition. Models do suggest the slightest
of potential for an isolated storm to develop this PM over the far
east. However that is slim...and the rest of the region will
clearly be too dry for any storms, with skies generally clear with
just a few developing clouds.

As flat high pressure aloft parks over the region and provides a
near-zonal westerly flow over the region, Tuesday and Wednesday
follow suit with continued drying and continued warming as
temperatures climb to 5-8 degrees above normal. Winds will be
generally light.

Thursday brings the next features of interest as both a backdoor
cool front push in from the east, and an upper-level shortwave
tracks in from the west. There is minimal cooling (~5 degrees)
behind the front for the zones east of the Rio Grande. However a
bit of increased moisture does also push in behind the front. Most
of the region...west of the Rio Grande...will be unaffected,
however the eastern zones will see slight chances return for
isolated showers and possible thunderstorms Thursday.

Friday through the weekend we see a rapid and stark return of
typical fall dry air as deep westerly zonal flow conditions
return. Conditions will be fair and mild and somewhat unseasonal
with temperatures back to 5-8 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 10/12Z-11/12Z...
VFR conditions expected all terminals through the period. General
sky/wx SKC-FEW080 / FEW-SCT250. Winds generally W-SW 05-10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For the early part of the work week, temperatures will warm into
the mid to upper 80s (around 10 deg F above normal) with dry
conditions returning and min rh values dropping to around 20% in
the lowlands. For Thursday a backdoor cool front pushes in from
the east as a weak trough passes from the west. This may bring
some thunderstorms to Otero and Hudspeth Counties Thursday, but
the rest of the region will continue dry and mild.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 85  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           83  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              83  56  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              83  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              65  39  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   82  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             77  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  84  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               85  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      85  60  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               83  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            87  58  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              79  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  86  57  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            84  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          83  60  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           83  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   83  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                85  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               83  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 73  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               72  43  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                70  44  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 76  46  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               81  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               81  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            78  45  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  80  53  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   83  45  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              81  42  81  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 81  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  87  53  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 86  53  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          85  54  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              82  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

14-Bird

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
702 AM MDT MON OCT 10 2016

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-111315-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
702 AM MDT MON OCT 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY A COLD
FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINATION IS LIKELY TO BRING GUSTY EAST
WINDS TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. IN ADDITION THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BIRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
211 PM MDT MON OCT 10 2016

NMZ409-102100-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES NM-
211 PM MDT MON OCT 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM MDT...

AT 210 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABALLO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CABALLO...UPHAM...SPACEPORT AMERICA...CABALLO LAKE AND LOWER ANIMAS
CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

IF ON OR NEAR CABALLO LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 10 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 10739 3301 10737 3305 10688 3280 10693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 276DEG 24KT 3294 10725

GRZYWACZ