Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
119 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing low pressure system will bring possible severe
thunderstorms to southern New Mexico and west Texas this
afternoon and this evening mainly for areas east of the Rio
Grande. Westerly winds will produce warm mostly dry weather for
the Borderland Friday and Saturday. East to southeast winds will
push moisture back into the area Sunday resulting in chances for
thunderstorms with near normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface trough was moving slowly eastward into central New Mexico
early this afternoon with axis separating deeper moisture to its
east and inflow of drier air to the west. For areas to the east
expect afternoon mucapes to be around 1000 to 2000 J/kg with
surface dewpoints above 50 and precipitable water amounts greater
than an inch. Surface heating plus convergence along trough axis
should provide sufficient upward forcing for scattered convection
mainly east of Rio Grande this afternoon and this evening. 40 kt
westerly winds at 6 km resulting in strong vertical wind
sufficient for updraft enhancement and even mid level rotation.
Thus a few storms may become severe with large hail...strong
damaging downbursts and very heavy rains.

Deep westerly wind component will develop on Friday advecting
drier air into the region as precipitable water falls below an
inch and surface dewpoints decrease below 50 F most areas except
far east. Thus expect drier weather and above normal temperatures
Friday and Saturday with only slight chances of storms mainly east
of the Rio Grande.

High pressure to the east will combine with troughing west of the
divide to generate low level east to southeast winds Sunday
through at least Tuesday with moisture transport again pushing
surface dewpoints back above 50 F and precipitable water above an
inch. East to west oriented ridge aloft will extend into the cwa
for much of next week but expect sufficient moisture and
instability will exist for isolated to scattered convection later
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/00Z-17/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 thru 12z with SCT VRB35G50KTS
1-3SM TSRAGR BKN030-050 mainly east KALM-KELP line through 06z and
isolated 3-5SM -TSRA BKN050-070 west of line. After 12Z mainly
SKC-SCT100-120 with isold to sct 3-5SM -TSRA BKN050-070 mainly over
Sacramento Mts into eastern Hudspeth County after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally warm conditions with isolated mountain storms are expected
into the weekend with the exception of more numerous storms possible
far east through this evening. Relative humidities with low level
west to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph will drop into the 15 to 20
percent range for the lowlands. An upper low will settle over the
Baja region this weekend and start to tap some moisture from the
south for early next week with best chances coming starting Tuesday.
Vent rates will be very good to excellent with the deep southwest
flow developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  92  67  92 /  30   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           63  88  63  88 /  40  10  10  30
Las Cruces              62  90  60  90 /  20   0   0  10
Alamogordo              61  89  60  90 /  30   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              48  68  47  70 /  40  30  20  30
Truth or Consequences   60  87  58  87 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             54  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  61  90  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               58  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      68  91  67  91 /  30   0   0  10
Dell City               63  89  62  89 /  40  20  10  30
Fort Hancock            67  93  67  93 /  40   0   0  20
Loma Linda              62  85  62  86 /  40   0   0  20
Fabens                  66  93  65  92 /  30   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            66  91  65  91 /  30   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          62  88  61  89 /  30   0   0  10
Jornada Range           59  88  58  89 /  20   0   0  10
Hatch                   61  88  59  89 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                62  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               64  89  63  89 /  30   0   0  20
Mayhill                 52  74  51  75 /  40  30  20  30
Mescalero               52  76  50  78 /  40  30  20  30
Timberon                50  74  50  75 /  40  30  20  30
Winston                 51  80  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               56  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               59  86  58  87 /  20   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            50  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  55  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   55  87  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              51  83  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 56  86  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  55  89  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 56  90  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          57  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              55  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1155 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-161830-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHERN
GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY
LAKES-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA
VALLEY-CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1155 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH MOST OF THE STORMS OCCURRING
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL
GREATER THAN AN INCH IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOST OF
THE REGION STAYING DRY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY OF PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL UP TO AN
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
133 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ402-408-409-152015-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES NM-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS NM-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-
133 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

AT 132 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTICELLO AND LAS PLACITAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3346 10715 3330 10759 3347 10771 3348 10769
      3347 10761 3348 10717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 239DEG 32KT 3346 10750

TRIPOLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
154 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ417-TXZ420-421-152045-
OTERO MESA NM-SALT BASIN TX-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS TX-
154 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO AND
NORTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 154 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF DELL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DELL CITY...SALT FLAT...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK...
GYPSUM DUNES AT GUADALUPE NATIONAL PARK AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10492 3171 10492 3164 10536 3186 10549
      3214 10485 3200 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 243DEG 27KT 3184 10521

TRIPOLI