Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
317 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will move across
the southwestern United States while moist unstable air flows into
the region. This weather pattern will bring showers and
thunderstorms to much of the Borderland today through Saturday. A
few of the storms may produce large hail...damaging winds and
heavy rainfalls with flooding. Westerly winds will bring
seasonably warm dry weather Sunday and Monday. Another upper
disturbance with a cold front will result in slightly cooler
temperatures with slight chances of thunderstorms Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low pressure system was centered over south central Arizona
early this morning. Weak impulse ahead of it was moving northward
through southern New Mexico initiating scattered convection over
the cwa early this morning.

The upper low will lift slowly to the north northeast today and
tonight and be located over southwestern Colorado by late Saturday
morning. However associated primary trough axis will lag to the
southwest through Arizona into tomorrow afternoon. This scenario
will sustain 40 to 50 kt west to southwest mid level flow across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today and tonight and also
place the cwa in left front quadrant of 80 kt jet streak extending
across northern Mexico. Thus dynamic forcing expected aloft today
and tonight. Meanwhile at low levels an east to southeast wind
will continue into the early afternoon with moisture inflow
resulting in surface dewpoints above 50 F and precipitable water
well above normal from .8 to 1.1 inch most areas. With mucape
values around 500 to 1000 j/kg combination of moisture...instability
and lift will generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight.

Low level east to southeast winds under 40 to 50 kt 6 km flow from
the west southwest will sustain strong deep layer shear of around
60 kt with an low level helicity above 300. These large values
indicate strong updraft rotation and supercell development are quite
possible with any storm. With wet bulb zero heights below 8000
feet agl large hail will be a primary weather threat. The abundant
moisture plus possible echo training also indicate risk of heavy
rain and flash flooding. Finally the high helicity due to veering
wind profiles means even a strong tornado is possible today and
tonight along with damaging downdrafts.

On Saturday upper trough axis moves across eastern Arizona in the
afternoon before advancing into New Mexico in the evening. Low
level southeast winds will maintain moisture transport over the
eastern half of the cwa where mucapes will be rather high between
1000 and 1500 J/kg. With 30 to 40 kt southwesterly mid level flow
the shear will again remain strong enough to support more severe
convection with large hail and damaging winds on
Saturday...especially east of the Rio Grande.

Westerly winds and subsidence behind the trough will bring
seasonably warm mostly dry weather Sunday and Monday. Another
upper low with a weak cold front will produce slightly cooler
weather with slight chances of thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered to numerous areas of mvfr with a few areas of ifr
ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms...mainly
after 21z. Hail...wind gusts to 60 kt and torrential rainfalls
possible with a few storms. Surface winds also gusting from 30 to
40 kt...especially along western slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low pressure system will move across
the southwestern United States while moist unstable air flows into
the region. This weather pattern will bring showers and
thunderstorms to much of the Borderland today through Saturday. A
few of the storms may produce large hail...damaging winds and
heavy rainfalls with flooding. Westerly winds will bring
seasonably warm dry weather Sunday and Monday. Another upper
disturbance with a cold front will result in slightly cooler
temperatures with slight chances of thunderstorms Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74  56  74  54 /  60  70  30  30
Sierra Blanca           69  54  72  52 /  50  60  40  60
Las Cruces              70  53  71  49 /  80  70  30  30
Alamogordo              72  53  73  52 /  60  70  40  40
Cloudcroft              53  39  55  39 /  70  70  40  60
Truth or Consequences   69  49  67  49 /  80  80  20  30
Silver City             65  48  65  45 /  70  40   0   0
Deming                  70  49  72  46 /  70  40  10  10
Lordsburg               69  44  71  45 /  50  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro      71  60  73  56 /  60  70  30  30
Dell City               69  49  73  48 /  50  50  40  50
Fort Hancock            75  57  77  53 /  60  60  40  50
Loma Linda              66  56  68  52 /  60  60  40  40
Fabens                  72  54  73  51 /  60  70  30  40
Santa Teresa            72  57  73  51 /  70  70  30  30
White Sands HQ          71  59  72  53 /  70  80  30  40
Jornada Range           71  51  71  46 /  70  80  30  30
Hatch                   69  54  71  49 /  80  70  20  30
Columbus                72  52  73  49 /  60  40  10  10
Orogrande               71  58  72  54 /  60  70  40  30
Mayhill                 59  45  62  44 /  70  70  50  50
Mescalero               60  43  63  42 /  70  70  40  60
Timberon                58  43  60  41 /  70  70  40  60
Winston                 60  42  63  38 /  80  70  20  20
Hillsboro               68  47  68  44 /  80  70  20  20
Spaceport               68  52  69  49 /  80  80  30  30
Lake Roberts            64  38  65  33 /  70  50  20  10
Hurley                  67  43  68  43 /  70  40   0  10
Cliff                   71  39  71  38 /  70  30   0   0
Mule Creek              70  33  68  35 /  60  30   0   0
Faywood                 69  47  68  44 /  80  50  10  20
Animas                  69  42  73  43 /  40  20   0   0
Hachita                 75  44  73  43 /  50  30   0   0
Antelope Wells          66  44  74  43 /  40  20   0   0
Cloverdale              76  45  72  45 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for TXZ418.

&&

05 Rogash

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
330 AM MDT FRI NOV 4 2016

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-051230-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO
MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
330 AM MDT FRI NOV 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL WITH DIAMETERS GREATER THAN AN INCH AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH. A STRONG TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THUS FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL WITH DIAMETERS GREATER
THAN AN INCH AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THUS FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AROUND MOUNTAIN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO REPORT
LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH FLASH FLOODING.

ROGASH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
419 AM MDT FRI NOV 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BAYARD                  32.76N 108.14W
11/04/2016  M1.00 INCH       GRANT              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1600344

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
448 AM MDT FRI NOV 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SILVER CITY             32.78N 108.27W
11/04/2016                   GRANT              NM   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY 180 NEAR SILVER CITY AND BAYARD SLOWED TRAFFIC
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING ON ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1600345

MLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
449 AM MDT FRI NOV 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SILVER CITY             32.78N 108.27W
11/04/2016                   GRANT              NM   911 CALL CENTER

            OFFICIALS CLOSED ARROYO NEAR HIGHWAY 180 AND SELNER DUE
            TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1600346

MLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
505 AM MDT FRI NOV 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BAYARD                  32.76N 108.14W
11/04/2016  M2.03 INCH       GRANT              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.03 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN 40 MINUTES. MODERATE
            RAIN STILL FALLING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1600347

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
531 AM MDT FRI NOV 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BAYARD                  32.76N 108.14W
11/04/2016                   GRANT              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 3 AM. FLOODING ACROSS
            BAYARD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1600348

MLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
540 AM MDT FRI NOV 4 2016

NMZ402-408>410-412-041300-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES NM-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS NM-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN NM-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY NM-
540 AM MDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
DONA ANA COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM MDT...

AT 538 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CABALLO...ARREY...MONTICELLO...CUCHILLO...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...
UPHAM...HILLSBORO...HATCH...SAN MIGUEL...SALEM...LAKE VALLEY...
SPACEPORT AMERICA...CITY OF ELEPHANT BUTTE...ENGLE...DERRY...
PALOMAS...GARFIELD...CUTTER...LOWER PALOMAS CANYON AND LAS PLACITAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 10688 3261 10757 3346 10754 3348 10700
      3347 10661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1138Z 239DEG 49KT 3304 10718

ROGASH