Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS El Paso, TX

651 
WGUS74 KEPZ 070041
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
641 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016

NMC035-070215-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160907T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OTERO NM-
641 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY...

AT 639 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED ABOUT 4 FEET OF WATER
INUNDATING LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN TULAROSA CREEK IN TULAROSA.
UPSTREAM GAUGE READINGS INDICATE THE CREEK WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TULAROSA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 10592 3304 10605 3304 10608 3306 10615
      3310 10610 3314 10594

$$

HARDIMAN

244 
WGUS74 KEPZ 070206
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
806 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016

NMC035-070215-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160907T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OTERO NM-
806 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 815 PM MDT...

WATER LEVELS IN TULAROSA CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO DROP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3309 10592 3304 10605 3304 10608 3306 10615
      3310 10610 3314 10594

$$

HARDIMAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
250 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As expected a wave of deep tropical moisture have moved over the
Borderland today with numerous showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms providing rain to much of the region. These
conditions will continue as Hurricane Newton continues to track
toward the area overnight through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are threats for all areas. The region dries sharply
Thursday through Saturday with most areas stay dry through this
period. Moisture returns Sunday to bring rain and storm chances
back to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PWs are UP big time as the initial wave of tropical moisture
arrived overnight...and continues to stream in on deep southerly
flow today. Projected PWs are to be just under 2" which is nearly
25% above the record numbers for the first week of SEP. As
expected we are seeing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the region. Abundant clouds and cooler temps are moderating
the development and coverage of the thunderstorms. However these
few storms are very efficient rain makers with some producing
rainfall rates of 2.5" per hour. With all the above in play we
continue the flash flood watch for the east zones...and have
extended the watch to include the west zones. For eastern areas
the primary window of heavy pcpn potential is today and tonight.
Out west that window is tonight and Wednesday.

Models have come into pretty good agreement on the Newton picture
with it crossing into SE AZ tomorrow between 12-18z. The NAM
models which was slow yesterday is not the fastest solution on
it's track north. The track is close to yesterdays progs...but
again just a bit more east. This eastward trend keeps shoving the
highest POPs and QPFs eastward across the AZ/NM line into our
western zones. That is the reason for the expanding watch. Models
are painting broad areas over an inch across all but our central
zones for today through WED evening. There are also large areas of
2-3.5 inches across east zones and west zones. East today...west
late tonight and WED. There are some helpful dynamics in play with
minor RREntry quad of a jet aloft over the W zones. Minor
disturbances aloft over the E zones.

The models quickly open the storm up over S AZ early tomorrow and
allow it to get caught up in the base of a western U.S. trough and
stream across the N Gila region between 00z and 10z WED. Newton's
remnants ultimately cut across central NM WED night as an open
trough. Models are sparse with any QPF for our region during this
window...but we will keep some POPs in for W and N zones as it
passes WED eve/night.

During the day THU we come under a sharp NW flow on the trough's
backside with abrupt drying as drier air sweeps in to flush the
moisture east. This should bring a quick end to PCPN with little
to no rain/storms for Thu, Fri, and Saturday.

To end this forecast cycle we see a weak front push back in later
in the day Saturday with moisture moving back in behind to bring a
return of rain and storm chances for Sun through Tue.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 07/00Z - 08/00Z.
Tropical moisture has arrived and will result in lowering ceilings
and periods of rain and thunderstorms. Winds will be shifting north
initially but at speeds generally below 12 KTS and veering to south
and southwest 12Z thru 24z. VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR at times
overnight. In general expect P6SM SHRA SCT-BKN030-050 BKN-OVC100
thru 16Z. Occasional MVFR-IFR ceilings possible with thunderstorms
thru 10Z with winds VAR15G25KT. After 16Z expect P6SM VCSH BKN050
OVC100.

27-Laney

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture continues to stream north from Mexico as Hurricane Newton
tracks towards southern Arizona and eventually southwest New Mexico.
This will result in elevated chances for wetting precip through late
Wednesday for most zones and carrying into Thursday for northwestern
fire zones. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be
the primary threat the next 24 to 36 hours. Cloud cover will keep
temps cool and MIN RH values will remain high with reading above 50
percent for all areas Wednesday and near 40 percent or more Thursday.

Slightly drier air will arrive briefly for Friday allowing for
warmer temps and somewhat lower MIN RH values. A cold front will
move past Saturday with slightly cooler conditions and extra low
level moisture. This will bring about additional chances for wetting
precipitation for the weekend and early next week as isolated to
scattered storms develop each afternoon.

27-Laney

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  82  67  86 /  90  40  40  10
Sierra Blanca           62  80  64  84 /  90  40  30  10
Las Cruces              62  81  63  85 /  80  50  40  10
Alamogordo              62  82  64  86 /  80  50  40  20
Cloudcroft              47  63  45  68 / 100  60  60  30
Truth or Consequences   60  80  62  83 /  60  50  70  30
Silver City             54  72  54  76 /  40  80  70  40
Deming                  62  82  62  85 /  70  60  50  20
Lordsburg               62  81  62  82 /  50  80  70  30
West El Paso Metro      65  83  67  86 /  90  50  40  10
Dell City               62  81  64  87 /  90  40  30  10
Fort Hancock            66  83  67  87 /  90  40  30  10
Loma Linda              59  74  60  81 /  90  40  40  10
Fabens                  63  82  66  86 /  90  40  30  10
Santa Teresa            63  82  65  85 /  90  50  40  10
White Sands HQ          63  80  64  84 /  90  50  40  10
Jornada Range           60  81  61  85 /  80  50  40  10
Hatch                   62  81  63  85 /  70  50  50  20
Columbus                63  83  64  85 /  80  60  50  10
Orogrande               63  80  65  84 /  90  50  40  10
Mayhill                 51  66  50  75 / 100  60  50  30
Mescalero               52  69  50  77 / 100  50  60  30
Timberon                50  65  48  74 / 100  70  60  30
Winston                 49  71  49  79 /  50  70  70  40
Hillsboro               55  76  56  81 /  50  60  60  40
Spaceport               60  80  62  84 /  70  50  60  20
Lake Roberts            49  72  48  78 /  50  90  80  50
Hurley                  55  74  54  79 /  40  80  70  30
Cliff                   50  77  51  80 /  40  90  80  40
Mule Creek              46  74  47  79 /  40  80  80  50
Faywood                 56  77  56  82 /  50  70  70  30
Animas                  60  83  59  84 /  50  80  60  20
Hachita                 60  82  59  84 /  50  80  50  10
Antelope Wells          60  79  59  83 /  70  70  50  20
Cloverdale              57  73  55  79 /  60  80  50  20

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NMZ410>417.

     Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening for NMZ401>409.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ418>424.

&&

14/27