Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
237 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will result in numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday across the area. Rain will be heavy
at times resulting in localized flooding issues. Temperatures will
be about 10 degrees below normal during this period due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air. Starting Friday moisture will be on the
decrease and temperatures on the increase, with temperatures a
little above normal possible on the weekend. Thunderstorms will
not be absent but much more isolated in coverage by then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The advertised moisture increase is here, and the atmosphere
should be quite moist the during next 48 hours. The boundary
that brought in low level moisture from the east overnight may
provide some lift, and the remnants of a weak upper low some
instability. We're going to need all we can get from those two
features for thunderstorm formation due to the lack of surface
heating under cloudy skies. Widespread numerous showers will
provide beneficial rain for many, but any thunderstorms that
manage to form will likely release heavy rain which could result
in flash flooding. Still some uncertainty regarding rain versus
widespread heavy rain to trigger a flash flood watch but that
could change the next shift or two. The models are not in
agreement with how much rain we receive. The 12z NAM wants to
nail us but not so much with the 12z GFS & ECM.

The models vary in later periods, too, with the GFS clearly
dropping off the moisture in increasing westerly flow ahead of a
Pacific NW trough Friday onward but much more subtle with the NAM.
Even with the GFS the moisture isn't swept away, just reduced with
isolated lowland/scattered mountain pops being retained. Went more
in line with the GFS. Below normal temps in the near term recover
to slightly above normal on the weekend (lower 90s many lowland
locations). Then there is a hint of some moist southerly flow
touching our area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 31/00Z - 01/00Z Low and mid level subtropical
moisture is being channeled nor northwestward into the area between
high pressure to the east and a trough of low pressure to the west
northwest. in general winds ENE-ESE 7-12 kts with some gusts to
17kts. Sky in general sct-bkn 040-060 bkn 100-140 and bkn 200-250.
aft 06z to the end of the fcst period these conditions spreading
from east of the Rio Grande westward. SCT020 BKN030-040CB BKN-OVC
080-12 BKN-OVC 200. LCL VSBY 2-4 MILES IN RA/BR. MVFR TO IFR in
heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist and unstable East to Southeast winds continue to flow into
southern New Mexico and Far West texas into Wednesday and Thursday.
This weather pattern will generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday with heavy rainfalls causing an
increasing probability of some flash flooding over a few locations.
Showers and thunderstorms should diminish next weekend as westerly
winds push drier air into the Borderland. Temperatures around 5 to
10 degrees below normal today through Thursday rising to near normal
by Friday. Min RH values will generally range in the 40% to 50%
values over most areas through Wednesday and even into the 70% level
in the Sacramento Mountains on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  80  67  84 /  50  60  50  50
Sierra Blanca           63  78  64  81 /  50  60  40  40
Las Cruces              63  79  64  81 /  60  60  50  50
Alamogordo              62  78  63  81 /  50  60  50  50
Cloudcroft              47  59  48  62 /  60  70  50  70
Truth or Consequences   62  76  61  79 /  50  50  40  50
Silver City             58  72  58  75 /  60  60  50  60
Deming                  63  79  64  82 /  60  60  50  50
Lordsburg               64  81  64  84 /  60  60  40  50
West El Paso Metro      67  80  68  83 /  50  60  50  50
Dell City               61  78  63  82 /  50  50  40  40
Fort Hancock            67  80  68  85 /  50  60  40  40
Loma Linda              60  74  61  77 /  50  60  40  50
Fabens                  65  80  66  84 /  50  60  40  50
Santa Teresa            65  80  66  83 /  50  60  50  50
White Sands HQ          64  77  65  80 /  50  60  50  50
Jornada Range           61  78  62  80 /  50  60  50  50
Hatch                   63  77  64  80 /  60  60  40  50
Columbus                64  80  65  83 /  60  60  50  50
Orogrande               64  78  64  81 /  50  60  50  50
Mayhill                 50  64  52  67 /  60  70  50  70
Mescalero               52  67  53  71 /  60  70  50  60
Timberon                49  65  51  68 /  60  70  50  70
Winston                 52  70  53  73 /  50  60  50  60
Hillsboro               58  74  58  77 /  60  60  50  60
Spaceport               61  76  61  79 /  50  60  40  50
Lake Roberts            53  73  54  75 /  60  60  50  70
Hurley                  58  73  59  76 /  60  60  50  50
Cliff                   59  79  60  82 /  60  60  40  60
Mule Creek              54  76  56  79 /  50  60  50  60
Faywood                 59  75  59  78 /  60  60  50  50
Animas                  62  81  62  85 /  50  60  40  40
Hachita                 62  80  62  83 /  60  60  50  40
Antelope Wells          62  77  62  82 /  60  60  50  50
Cloverdale              59  74  61  79 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

01/Fausett 20/Novlan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-312045-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASED OVERNIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS IS THE
GREATEST THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET MICROBURSTS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT...THOUGH
FLASH FLOODING COULD INCREASE IF ENOUGH RAIN SATURATES THE GROUND
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ESPECIALLY TO REPORT HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.

FAUSETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
314 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLOOD            MCNARY                  31.25N 105.80W
08/30/2016                   HUDSPETH           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS WHILE DRIVING EAST ON I10...BETWEEN
            TORNILLO AND MCNARY...FLAT FIELDS APPEAR TO BE LAKES
            ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES DEEP WITH WATER. ALSO ALONG I10...
            THE ARROYO ABOUT 1 MILE WEST OF THE I10...HWY 20
            JUNCTION IS RUNNING FAST AND HARD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1600313

FK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
348 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     FLOOD            FORT HANCOCK            31.30N 105.84W
08/30/2016                   HUDSPETH           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BLACKFOOT ROAD AND 5TH STREET CLOSED DUE TO WATER
            RUNNING LIKE A RIVER THROUGH THEM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1600314

FK